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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Monday, 19 December 2011 07:22
Weekly Report 19/12 – 23/ 12/ 2011
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With the start of this week, the pair was unable to settle above the exponential moving average 20, while Stochastic is negatively biased, which indicates that the descending channel is still affecting the pair. We expect the downside movement to extend this week in general, while consolidation below the psychological level at 1.3000 should trigger more bearishness. Consolidation below 1.3210 is necessary for our negative outlook to remain valid.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 1.2740 and the major resistance at 1.3270.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135
**New York Candlesticks**
| Support | 1.3000 | 1.2955 | 1.2875 | 1.2845 | 1.2790 |
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| Resistance | 1.3045 | 1.3080 | 1.3120 | 1.3160 | 1.3220 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair around 1.3045, and take profit in stages at (1.2955 and 1.2845) and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 1.3120 might be appropriate | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Weekly Report 19/12 – 23/ 12/ 2011
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The mild bounce from 1.5405 zones is still limited below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire downside rally from 1.6615 to the significant low of 1.5270 as seen on the provided daily chart. Having a deeper look at the graph will prove that the current recovery should be treated as a retesting technical process for SMA 20 and thus, we may witness more downside actions, mainly targeting 1.5420, followed by the major short term target at 1.5270. Of note, Stochastic may cause some kind of fluctuation, but we don't think that it can change the clear bearish direction. Finally, areas of 1.5780 should act as ceilings for the suggested scenario.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.5000 and key resistance at 1.5880.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.5420 | 1.5320 | 1.5270 | 1.5180 | 1.5075 |
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| Resistance | 1.5560 | 1.5680 | 1.5720 | 1.5780 | 1.5880 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair around 1.5555 targeting 1.5180 and stop loss above 1.5780 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Weekly Report 19/12 – 23/ 12/ 2011
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The consolidation continued above 50% Fibonacci level of the upside rallies from 75.50 to 79.50 as seen on the provided four-hour graph. Additionally, SMA50&SMA100 combination continues providing the pair with the support it needs; whilst Stochastic crossed over positively. Trading has been trapped within a very tight range during the previous week, suggesting that a potential price explosion could be seen sooner but we need to witness a breakout above the resistance line seen on the graph to make sure that 78.30 will be cleared.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 75.80 and key resistance now at 80.00.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 77.60 | 77.30 | 76.95 | 76.40 | 76.10 |
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| Resistance | 78.30 | 78.80 | 79.15 | 79.55 | 80.00 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair around 77.65 targeting 79.55 and stop loss below 76.40 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Weekly Report 19/12 – 23/ 12/ 2011
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The decline seen last week supported the pair to approach the critical support of the ascending channel as shown above. Stochastic is positive now, while consolidation above 0.9290 and 0.9235 is positive and drives us to expect an upside move this week. 4-hour closing below 0.9235 should delay any expected upside move.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.9045 and the major resistance at 0.9660.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.8020 targeting 0.9400.
**New York Candlesticks**
| Support | 0.9330 | 0.9290 | 0.9235 | 0.9195 | 0.9110 |
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| Resistance | 0.9415 | 0.9480 | 0.9560 | 0.9520 | 0.9660 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the chart and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair above 0.9330, and take profit in stages at (0.9415, 0.9560 and 0.9660) and stop loss below 0.9235 might be appropriate | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Weekly Report 19/12 – 23/ 12/ 2011
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Stability above 1.0365 again supported the return of positivity, where Stochastic provides a positive crossover, despite the overbought signs seen on it. The exponential moving averages 20 and 50 are still negative. Therefore, we expect that the pair could extend the upside move this week towards areas around 1.0495, while a breach of this level could support the pair to reach areas around 1.0570 at least. A breach of 1.0275 should weaken the upside move.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 1.0110 and the major resistance at 1.0765.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
**New York Candlesticks**
| Support | 1.0365 | 1.0305 | 1.0275 | 1.0205 | 1.0185 |
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| Resistance | 1.0475 | 1.0500 | 1.0570 | 1.0620 | 1.0690 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair above 1.0365, and take profit in stages at (1.0475 and 1.0570) and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 1.0275 might be appropriate | ||||