Euro Sentiment at Record Extreme

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Written by article default Tuesday, 06 December 2011 07:07

Latest CFTC Release dated November 29, 2011:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)	Comment
US Dollar
Euro	COT difference downtrend is bearish BUT record commercial longs warns of a reversal
British Pound
Australian Dollar
Japanese Yen
Canadian Dollar	COT difference downtrend is bearish
Swiss Franc	COT difference downtrend is bearish
Gold
Silver
Copper
Crude	COT difference uptrend is bullish
30 Yr US Bond
10 Yr US Note	COT difference uptrend is bullish
2 Yr US Note

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 13 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 13 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. This is not always true however (especially for equity futures) –group behavior varies across markets. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

Charts

Non Commercials (speculators) – Red

Commercials – Blue

Small Speculators – Black

COTDiff – Black

Volume on bottom

US Dollar