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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Monday, 14 November 2011 07:42
Weekly Report 14/11 – 18/ 11/ 2011
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The pair returned to consolidate above the neckline of the suggested head and shoulders pattern, where this consolidation is accompanied with stability above the Exponential Moving Averages 20 and 50, which negated the continuity of the downside movement mentioned in our previous report. Stochastic is within overbought areas, but MACD is turning positive; therefore, the pair could retest areas around 1.3695-65 in attempts to gain positive momentum. The pair could enter a bullish wave, but a breach of 1.3665 and consolidation below it could activate our negative outlook, supported by the bearish head and shoulders pattern. Therefore, we remain neutral in our weekly report, awaiting further confirmation by tracking the pair’s behavior around the level of 1.3665.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 1.3380 and the major resistance at 1.4205.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135
| Support | 1.3720 | 1.3695 | 1.3665 | 1.3620 | 1.3665 |
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| Resistance | 1.3825 | 1.3840 | 1.3880 | 1.3910 | 1.3940 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we remain neutral awaiting more confirmations | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Weekly Report 14/11 – 18/ 11/ 2011
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Cable has soared once more after touching the key support level around 1.5890 which represented the neckline areas of our previous suggested classical pattern -check the previous report-. Now, having a look at the daily chart will clarify that the pair is facing a very sensitive area around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire downside rally from 1.6615 to the significant low of 1.5270; noting that the classical pattern discussed earlier didn't fail since trading continues below 1.6165 areas. In the interim, SMA 200 started to play the role of a ceiling for short term trading; whilst 1.5890 becomes the floor supported by SMA 50. The pair should get rid of one of those two edges to tell us where it will move over upcoming period. Henceforth, we will stay aside despite the positivity on Stochastic until the pair beats the trendless zones.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.5585 and key resistance at 1.6440.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6000 | 1.5905 | 1.5820 | 1.5780 | 1.5720 |
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| Resistance | 1.6125 | 1.6165 | 1.6200 | 1.6295 | 1.6380 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, staying aside until an actionable setup introduces itself to pinpoint the upcoming big move. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Weekly Report 14/11 – 18/ 11/ 2011
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In line with our previous report, the pair moved mildly downwards where it is currently hovering around SMA 100 as seen on the provided four-hour graph. We can see that SMA 100 meeting the initial support of 77.05 -61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire upside wave from 75.50 to 79.50 zones- while RSI 14 becomes ready to achieve a bullish sign. At the same time, the probability of drawing a potential positive divergence on Stochastic increased; thus, we look forward to an upside rally resumption for the wave started at 75.50 since we classify the setbacks from 79.50 as a correction.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 76.10 and key resistance now at 79.55.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 76.95 | 76.60 | 76.40 | 76.10 | 75.80 |
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| Resistance | 77.60 | 77.90 | 78.45 | 78.80 | 79.55 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair around 77.05 targeting 78.80 and stop loss below 76.10 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Weekly Report 14/11 – 18/ 11/ 2011
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The pair declined before reaching around 0.9210 and completing the bearish Butterfly harmonic pattern. Currently, the pair is trading within critical levels, which are areas below the bottom of (X) point of the suggested harmonic pattern, however the pair is also trading above the top of (B) point of the pattern. The pair is trading now in areas around the exponential moving average 50 and also around the harmonic support level. Therefore, we remain neutral in our weekly report, where trading above 0.9060 is positive, while consolidation below 0.8900 negates the harmonic pattern and supports the downside movement to extend further.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.8505 and the major resistance at 0.9400.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.8020 targeting 0.9400.
| Support | 0.8950 | 0.8900 | 0.8850 | 0.8810 | 0.8775 |
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| Resistance | 0.9030 | 0.9060 | 0.9080 | 0.9105 | 0.9185 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we remain neutral awaiting more confirmations | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Weekly Report 14/11 – 18/ 11/ 2011
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The pair provided a bearish opening gap today; however, it covered this gap and is inclining now. The decline seen earlier negated the stability above the neckline of the bullish structure, yet didn’t negate the structure itself, where the pair didn’t provide any 4-hour closing below the level of 1.0100, while after the opening today below this level the pair returned to provide candlesticks above this level. Therefore, we expect the upside move to return, especially when Stochastic supports our expectations.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.9700 and the major resistance at 1.0475.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 1.0140 | 1.0100 | 1.0055 | 1.0000 | 0.9970 |
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| Resistance | 1.0185 | 1.0205 | 1.0255 | 1.0275 | 1.0305 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend buying the pair around 1.0140, and take profit in stages at (1.0255 and 1.0305) and stop loss below 1.0000 might be appropriate | ||||
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