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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Wednesday, 09 November 2011 07:46
Morning Report
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The pair rebounded to the upside, yet didn’t provide any 4-hour closing above 1.3840, where the exponential moving average 50 prevented the upside move from extending further. Stochastic attempts to turn negative which could support the pair to settle below the exponential moving average 20 at 1.3780, driving us to expect a downside movement. A breach of 1.3840 and consolidation above it could weaken our expectations.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 1.3565 and the major resistance at 1.3990.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
**New York Candlesticks**
| Support | 1.3800 | 1.3780 | 1.3740 | 1.3695 | 1.3665 |
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| Resistance | 1.3840 | 1.3885 | 1.3910 | 1.3940 | 1.3990 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend selling the pair below 1.3780, and take profit in stages at (1.3665 and 1.3565) and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 1.3840 might be appropriate. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Morning Report
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Until now, we didn't witness any four-hour closing above the former resistance of 1.6165 that could threaten the classical shape of H&S pattern. In the interim, RSI 14 started to reflect that the pair has lost its upside steam and as we mentioned in several occasions before that Cable always accede to the overbought and oversold signals. As for trend indicators, Vortex shows trend exhaustion suggesting that the pair's movements may reverse sooner to the downside. Of note, a break of 1.5960 is needed to confirm this scenario; whilst the risk versus reward ratio becomes too high for intraday traders. Therefore, we will stay aside until the pair achieves clear bearish actions with a long black candlestick to make sure that the negative signs on indicators are accurate as well.
The trading range for today is among key support at 1.5780 and key resistance at 1.6295.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6025 | 1.5960 | 1.5945 | 1.5905 | 1.5880 |
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| Resistance | 1.6125 | 1.6165 | 1.6200 | 1.6250 | 1.6295 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, staying aside until a new actionable technical setup confirms the bearish signs appearing on technical indicators. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Morning Report
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The technical situation for the USD/JPY pair becomes very sensitive for intraday traders as it is currently hovering around 50% Fibonacci retracement of the two candlesticks upside rally from 75.55 to 79.50 zones, while Stochastic approaches oversold zones. Despite breaching the key support of 77.80 with consecutive four-hour candlesticks, but the pair has a solid support around 77.10 zones-61.8%- where SMA 100 exists. Anyway, the bullish picture may come back into focus once the pair stabilizes above 77.80 again. Conversely, areas of 76.40-76.10 should hold to keep the awaited bullish resumption valid.
The trading range for today is among key support at 76.10 and key resistance now at 79.55.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 77.20 | 77.05 | 76.95 | 76.60 | 76.40 |
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| Resistance | 77.90 | 78.45 | 78.80 | 79.55 | 79.90 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair above 77.80 targeting 80.05 and stop loss below 76.40 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Morning Report
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The decline seen yesterday is still limited in areas above the exponential moving average 50, which formed a support level around the suggested (B) point of the Butterfly harmonic pattern shown above on the chart. Consolidation above 0.8900-0.8880 supports the return of the upside move today, noting that Stochastic attempts to provide a positive crossover.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.8505 and the major resistance at 0.9210.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.8020 targeting 0.9400.
| Support | 0.8900 | 0.8880 | 0.8850 | 0.8805 | 0.8780 |
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| Resistance | 0.8975 | 0.9030 | 0.9080 | 0.9185 | 0.9210 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the chart and explanations above, we recommend buying the pair around 0.8950, and take profit in stages at (0.9080 and 0.9210) and stop loss below 0.8805 might be appropriate today | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Morning Report
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The pair declined again to currently trade below the exponential moving averages, but also was able to remain stable above 1.0050. Stochastic is positively biased, yet consolidation above 1.0185 is required to confirm this positivity, while a breach of 0.9970 could negate any intraday upside move. Therefore, we remain neutral in our morning report, awaiting more technical signs before our midday report.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.9905 and the major resistance at 1.0360.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 1.0100 | 1.0085 | 1.0050 | 1.0025 | 0.9970 |
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| Resistance | 1.0185 | 1.0205 | 1.0255 | 1.0275 | 1.0305 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, we remain neutral awaiting more confirmations | ||||
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