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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Monday, 19 September 2011 09:38
Weekly Report 19/09 – 23/ 09/ 2011
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The pair declined sharply with a bearish opening gap, which could be covered later, however, this gap did not negate the formation of the suggested CD leg of the harmonic structure, which suggests more downside movement. Stochastic provided a negative crossover, while RSI is turning positive; where all those signs together contradict each other, in addition to the need to cover the opening gap and our belief that the pair is still forming the CD leg of the bearish harmonic structure. Therefore, we remain neutral in our weekly report, awaiting more confirmations.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 1.3110 and the major resistance at 1.4155
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.3600 | 1.3530 | 1.3435 | 1.3395 | 1.3320 |
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| Resistance | 1.3720 | 1.3765 | 1.3840 | 1.3880 | 1.3910 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we remain neutral awaiting more confirmations | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Weekly Report 19/09 – 23/ 09/ 2011
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The market has opened with a gap below the pivotal support -turned into resistance- of 1.5780 as seen clearly on the secondary four-hour graph. As we numerously discussed, this level represents a neckline for a potential double top over weekly studies; whilst the negative pressure from moving averages combination continue affecting the pair. Thereby, we see chances for achieving additional downside actions during this week, supported by the negativity on Stochastic. Of note, the gap might be cover before resuming the classical bearish trajectory. Ultimately, a break below 1.5655 will accelerate the awaited wave.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.5345 and key resistance at 1.6190.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.5655 | 1.5545 | 1.5515 | 1.5475 | 1.5345 |
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| Resistance | 1.5780 | 1.5880 | 1.5935 | 1.6000 | 1.6075 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair around 1.5750 targeting 1.5475 and stop loss above 1.5940 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Weekly Report 19/09 – 23/ 09/ 2011
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The pair started to achieve stability above SMA 20 as seen on the provided four hour graph, attempting to hit the initial resistance of 76.95 zones. All we need is a sustained breakout above 77.20 to assist the pair to move higher once more to complete the suggested Elliott sequence. Moreover, we can see the potential head and shoulders bottom pattern which took a long time to be formed; thus, it may cause a price explosion to the upside and that will match the IM -impulsive- nature of "C" wave. Carefully note that the bullish classical pattern will be valid as far as areas of 75.90-75.80 remain intact.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 75.25 and key resistance now at 80.05.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 76.40 | 76.20 | 75.80 | 75.60 | 75.25 |
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| Resistance | 77.20 | 77.60 | 77.90 | 78.45 | 79.10 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair above 77.20 targeting 79.10 and stop loss below 75.80 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Weekly Report 19/09 – 23/ 09/ 2011
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The pair rebounded slightly to the upside after reaching 23.6% Fibonacci correction of the Butterfly harmonic pattern, while Stochastic is turning positive. But, consolidation below the pattern’s potential reversal zone at 0.8920 supports the return of the downside movement, especially after the pair failed to achieve any of the pattern’s targets, which begin with 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 0.8460. The Relative Strength Index is close to oversold areas, which confirms our expectations.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.8320 and the major resistance at 0.9190.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.8020 targeting 0.9400.
| Support | 0.8780 | 0.8750 | 0.8640 | 0.8605 | 0.8535 |
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| Resistance | 0.8850 | 0.8920 | 0.9000 | 0.9040 | 0.9105 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the chart and explanations above, we recommend selling the pair around 0.8850, and take profit in stages at (0.8640 and 0.8460) and stop loss with daily closing above 0.9000 might be appropriate | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Weekly Report 19/09 – 23/ 09/ 2011
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After breaching the upside trend’s main support and forming the bearish technical structure, the pair continues to trade with a negative bias. Despite the upside correction seen today, the pair is stable below the exponential moving averages and the previously breached main support, which turned into resistance. The pair could trigger an upside correction to retest the levels around 0.9910, but consolidation below 1.0010 should support the general downside movement, while consolidation below 0.9950 should add more confirmations to our expectations to remain valid.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.9635 and the major resistance at 1.0125
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9830 | 0.9800 | 0.9760 | 0.9705 | 0.9635 |
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| Resistance | 0.9910 | 0.9950 | 0.9970 | 1.0010 | 1.0085 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend selling the pair around 0.9900, and take profit in stages at (0.9800, 0.9705) and stop loss above 0.9970 might be appropriate. | ||||
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