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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Monday, 12 September 2011 09:35
Weekly Report 12/09 – 16/ 09/ 2011
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The pair’s upside move failed with the breach of 1.3910, as we can see a possible harmonic Bat Pattern. This suggested pattern should be completed at 1.3110, where this level represents 88.6% Fibonacci correction of the XA leg of the suggested pattern, however, 78.6% Fibonacci correction represents a barrier facing the pair’s downside trend. A breach of 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the XA leg at 1.3665 proposes completing the suggested pattern, therefore, the downside movement could continue towards the PRZ as long as the pair is stable below 1.3910 and preferably below 1.3665.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 1.3110 and the major resistance at 1.3910.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.3530 | 1.3435 | 1.3395 | 1.3320 | 1.3250 |
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| Resistance | 1.3600 | 1.3665 | 1.3720 | 1.3765 | 1.3880 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend selling the pair below 1.3665, and take profit in stages at (1.3320 and 1.3110) and stop loss with daily closing above 1.3840 might be appropriate. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Weekly Report 12/09 – 16/ 09/ 2011
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The pair has collapsed during the past week, respecting our previous efficient harmonic analysis over the daily basis -check the previous report- and now, it becomes very close to the PRZ of the previous suggested harmonic butterfly pattern at 1.5780. This level represents the neckline of the potential double top pattern formed over weekly studies for the upside rally from 1.4225 as seen on the provided chart. Thus, touching this level will cause fluctuation, but the bigger time weekly frames could beat the daily basis due to the negativity on the candlestick pattern and the bearish sign on Stochastic. Consequently, we recommend joining the classical bearish trend after it clears 1.5780 zones.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.5475 and key resistance at 1.6250.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.5780 | 1.5690 | 1.5655 | 1.5515 | 1.5475 |
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| Resistance | 1.5935 | 1.6000 | 1.6105 | 1.6190 | 1.6250 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair below 1.5780 targeting 1.5475 and stop loss above 1.6000 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Weekly Report 12/09 – 16/ 09/ 2011
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The pair is presently achieving normal pullback due to facing 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire downside rally from 80.20 to 75.90. This mild recovery was needed to relieve momentum indicator and we believe that it will be limited in the areas between 77.20 and 76.95 before moving higher once more to complete the suggested Elliott sequence. Moreover, we can see the potential head and shoulders bottom pattern which took long time to be formed; thus, it may cause a price explosion to the upside and that will match the IM -impulsive- nature of "C" wave. Ultimately, the bullish classical pattern will be valid as far as areas of 75.90-75.80 remain intact.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 75.25 and key resistance now at 80.05.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 77.20 | 76.95 | 76.40 | 75.80 | 75.25 |
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| Resistance | 77.90 | 78.45 | 79.10 | 79.55 | 80.05 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair around 76.95 targeting 78.80 and stop loss below 75.80 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Weekly Report 12/09 – 16/ 09/ 2011
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The suggested harmonic structure derived from the Deep Crab pattern (which differs from the ideal pattern by reaching 200% correction of CD leg) supported the pair to reach the first target at 0.8850. Currently, the pair is trading slightly above the mentioned level, and according to the harmonic analysis, this could lead the pair to extended the upside movement towards 61.8% Fibonacci correction at 0.9950. But, the long candle seen during the past week could cause a downside correction before the awaited incline, which could lead the pair to trade below the mentioned target. Therefore, we remain neutral today and also recommend reviewing our coming reports.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.8170 and the major resistance at 0.9400.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.8020 targeting 0.9400.
| Support | 0.8850 | 0.8780 | 0.8750 | 0.8675 | 0.8605 |
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| Resistance | 0.8900 | 0.8945 | 0.9000 | 0.9105 | 0.9190 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we remain neutral awaiting more confirmations | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Weekly Report 12/09 – 16/ 09/ 2011
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The pair rebounded sharply to the upside reaching now around the psychological barrier at 1.0000, however a breach of this level could support the pair to test the level of 1.0090, which represents 127.2% Fibonacci correction of the downside movement which started at 1.0008 and ended at 0.9725. The upside move is still valid for this week, while a breach of the several resistances between 1.0010 and 1.0090 should support the pair to test the level of 1.0185, but a failure should trigger a downside correction.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.9710 and the major resistance at 1.0260
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9950 | 0.9910 | 0.9865 | 0.9830 | 0.9770 |
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| Resistance | 1.0010 | 1.0090 | 1.0125 | 1.0185 | 1.0260 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair above 0.9950, and take profit in stages at (1.0090 and 1.0185) and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 0.9830 might be appropriate. | ||||
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