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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Tuesday, 06 September 2011 07:48
Morning Report
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As we mentioned in our previous report, the pair declined as expected and is currently approaching the upside trend’s main support at 1.3970-60. Moreover, the pair approaches the several support levels around 1.4025 –mentioned in our weekly report- which could force the pair to rebound to the upside. Consolidation above the critical support as shown above in red, and also above the gap seen yesterday are reasons behind our positive expectations today. Stochastic is within oversold areas, while the relative strength index approaches 30 points level, which supports our expectations.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 1.3910 and the major resistance at 1.4365
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.4025 | 1.3970 | 1.3910 | 1.3880 | 1.3840 |
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| Resistance | 1.4120 | 1.4150 | 1.4205 | 1.4255 | 1.4300 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend buying the pair around 1.4025, and take profit in stages at (1.4150 and 1.4255) and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 1.3910 might be appropriate. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Morning Report
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During the past ten days, the pair has collapsed from 1.6450 -Cpoint- respecting our negative outlook. Harmonically speaking, we can see potential harmonic butterfly pattern which we add to our classical weekly outlook, where its CD leg is in progress. The break below the pivotal support -turned into resistance- of 1.6105 zones is a technical catalyst that argues us to suggest more bearishness towards D 1 at 1.5960 according to Fibonacci rhythmic dominating the daily graph. But, the consecutive negative pressure indicates that D 2 at 1.5785 will be the main target for the butterfly's CD leg. Stochastic may cause some kind of fluctuation but we don't think it will prevent the pair form moving lower over intraday basis since MACD traditional is definitely negative; whilst the bearishness is covered by SMA 50.
The trading range for today is among key support at 1.5780 and key resistance at 1.6310.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6025 | 1.5935 | 1.5875 | 1.5820 | 1.5780 |
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| Resistance | 1.6105 | 1.6145 | 1.6190 | 1.6240 | 1.6310 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair around 1.6105 targeting 1.5960, followed by 1.5875 and stop loss above 1.6250 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Morning Report
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The pair is currently struggling around SMA 20 as seen on the provided four hour chart. Our graph shows how the pair has been trapped within a very tight range, signaling that a price explosion is underway. Stochastic may force it to show some kind of bounce before hitting 23.6% Fibonacci of the downside rally from 80.20 to 75.90. Our positive technical scenario which is based on the proposed Elliott count and the classical overview requires breaching through the initial resistance of 77.20 to be confirmed.
The trading range for today is among key support at 75.25 and key resistance now at 78.45.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 76.40 | 76.20 | 75.80 | 75.25 | 74.80 |
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| Resistance | 77.20 | 77.40 | 77.85 | 78.45 | 79.10 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair above 77.20 targeting 79.55 and stop loss below 75.80 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Morning Report
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The pair is trading within narrow levels, but negatively biased, where it's stable below the downside trend’s main resistance and also below the exponential moving averages 20 and 50, therefore, the pair could attempt to breach 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 0.7790 to extend the temporary downside movement, which could lead the pair to decline towards 0.7655 and 0.7515. in result, we hold onto our negative expectations as long as the pair is stable below 0.7990-0.8020.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.7650 and the major resistance at 0.8170.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.6980 targeting 0.8815.
| Support | 0.7815 | 0.7750 | 0.7710 | 0.7650 | 0.7620 |
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| Resistance | 0.7875 | 0.7900 | 0.7970 | 0.8020 | 0.8080 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the chart and explanations above, we recommend selling the pair below 0.7915, and take profit in stages at (0.7790 and 0.7650) and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 0.8020 might be appropriate today. | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Morning Report
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The pair rebounded to the upside yesterday, providing a positive crossover seen on the exponential moving averages, which suggests that the downside correctional movement ended. Furthermore, a breach of the descending resistance supports us to expect the pair to attempt turning positive today. But, a downside correction is expected before the suggested positivity controls the pair’s movement, where Stochastic and RSI are negative. The pair upside move could be difficult, where the pair should face critical resistance levels at 0.9970 and 1.0010.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.9770 and the major resistance at 1.0125
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9850 | 0.9825 | 0.9770 | 0.9710 | 0.9680 |
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| Resistance | 0.9970 | 1.0010 | 1.0080 | 1.0125 | 1.0160 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair around 0.9850, and take profit in stages at (0.9970 and 1.0080) and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 0.9760 might be appropriate today. | ||||
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