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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Monday, 05 September 2011 07:35
Weekly Report 05/09 – 09/09/ 2011
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We can see that downside pressures are affecting the pair, which is currently stable below the 100 moving average near 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 1.4150 as shown on the secondary image. In fact, the upside trend is still valid in general, while we expect a downside movement during this week, which could support the pair to approach the upside trend’s main support at 1.3970, which represents the medium-term support shown in Red, but after that we expect the pair to start a new upside move.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 1.3910 and the major resistance at 1.4455
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.4110 | 1.4070 | 1.4015 | 1.3970 | 1.3910 |
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| Resistance | 1.4205 | 1.4250 | 1.4300 | 1.4365 | 1.4410 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend buying the pair around 1.4015, targeting 1.4300 and stop loss with daily closing below 1.3910 might be appropriate. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Weekly Report 05/09 – 09/ 09/ 2011
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Respecting our previous week's analysis, the pair closed comfortably below SMA 50 -currently valued at 1.6240- last Friday as seen on the provided daily graph. The bearishness became clearer on MACD traditional, but Stochastic might cause a retest of SMA 50 before resuming the bearishness that started at 1.6620 zones. A break below the pivotal support of 1.6105 will accelerate the movements, weakening the psychological level of 1.6000. To summarize, we hold onto our negative overview; noting that areas between 1.6500 and 1.6550 should act as a ceiling.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.5780 and key resistance at 1.6550.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6130 | 1.6000 | 1.5935 | 1.5875 | 1.5780 |
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| Resistance | 1.6240 | 1.6365 | 1.6420 | 1.6470 | 1.6550 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair around 1.6240 targeting 1.5935 and stop loss above 1.6425 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Weekly Report 05/09 – 09/ 09/ 2011
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Tranquility still dominates the movements of the pair, where we still believe that the suggested Elliott sequence offers the probability of starting "C" wave sooner. Breaching through SMA 20- valued at 76.75- will ease the path for re-attacking areas between 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire downside rally from 80.20 and the key resistance of 77.20. Of note, Stochastic may cause some kind of fluctuation before gathering the required momentum for breaching 77.20, while areas of 75.80 should protect the bullish scenario.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 74.80 and key resistance now at 80.05.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 76.40 | 76.20 | 75.80 | 75.25 | 74.80 |
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| Resistance | 77.20 | 77.85 | 78.45 | 79.10 | 79.55 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair above 77.20 targeting 79.55 and stop loss below 75.80 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Weekly Report 05/09 – 09/ 09/ 2011
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The bullish harmonic structure is still available, while the general trend is still to the upside as shown above. Nevertheless, on the secondary image, the pair is currently within a downside correction as stability below the simple moving average 20 and 50 at 0.7955 and 0.8000 respectively confirms the bearish correction, while the pair could retest lower levels and may reach 50% Fibonacci correction and maybe 61.8% at 0.7655 and 0.7515 respectively. In result, we expect a downside move to control the pair’s movement in the coming period, as consolidation below 0.8000 supports our negative expectations. But, we recommend reviewing our reports to confirm the sharp rebound expected this week.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.7600 and the major resistance at 0.8350.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.6980 targeting 0.8815.
| Support | 0.7815 | 0.7790 | 0.7710 | 0.7665 | 0.7600 |
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| Resistance | 0.7915 | 0.7965 | 0.8020 | 0.8090 | 0.8170 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the chart and explanations above, we recommend selling the pair below 0.7950, and take profit in stages at (0.7790 and 0.7515) and stop loss with daily closing above 0.8020 might be appropriate | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Weekly Report 05/09 – 09/ 09/ 2011
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The pair failed to reach 50% Fibonacci correction at 0.9710 and rebounded to the upside with an opening gap seen today, which lifted the pair above the resistance as shown above in Red, but the pair failed to stabilize above 23.6% Fibonacci correction at 0.9865. Stochastic is within overbought areas, which supports the mentioned correction of 23.6%, but these factors contradict the breach of the descending resistance. Therefore, we remain neutral for now, especially as this breach was due to the opening gap which is a weak technical sign.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.9535 and the major resistance at 1.0010
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9830 | 0.9760 | 0.9710 | 0.9635 | 0.9590 |
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| Resistance | 0.9865 | 0.9910 | 0.9970 | 0.9990 | 1.0010 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we remain neutral awaiting more confirmations | ||||
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