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Hard to Project USD Outcome in Unusual NFP and Pre-Holiday Session
Written by article default Friday, 02 September 2011 10:28
Morning Report
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The pair breached 1.4365 and then the uptrend line, which controlled the pair’s movement from the bottom of 1.3837 reaching the peak recorded this week at 1.4549, but 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 1.4265 stopped the pair’s negative momentum. Consolidation above the mentioned level, but below 1.4365 could lead the pair to test the simple moving average 200 at 1.4165, while trading above 1.4365 could activate positivity again. Therefore, we remain neutral today awaiting more confirmations.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 1.4070 and the major resistance at 1.4455
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.4255 | 1.4205 | 1.4165 | 1.4120 | 1.4070 |
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| Resistance | 1.4300 | 1.4365 | 1.4385 | 1.4410 | 1.4455 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we remain neutral awaiting more confirmations | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Morning Report
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Respecting our yesterday's proposed bearish scenario, the pair descended closing negatively below the detected areas of 1.6190 as seen on the provided daily graph. SMA 50 is presently valued at 1.6235 which is very close to the pivotal resistance of 1.6250, adding further bearish pressure on the pair. Thereby, we hold onto our bearish anticipations over intraday basis, supported by the continuous negative signs on MACD and Stochastic ; noting that a break below yesterday's low at 1.6130 will bring panic sell-off actions.
The trading range for today is among key support at 1.5935 and key resistance at 1.6470.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6130 | 1.6075 | 1.6025 | 1.6000 | 1.5935 |
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| Resistance | 1.6250 | 1.6310 | 1.6365 | 1.6420 | 1.6470 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair around 1.6250 targeting 1.6025 and stop loss above 1.6430 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Morning Report
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The consecutive positive closing above SMA 20-colored in green- should be seen as bullish price behaviors. Now, we need to witness one closing above the key resistance level of 76.95 to activate our suggested bullish scenario. We still believe that the bullishness may dominate the movements of the pair over intraday basis, supported by the mixture between classical probability of forming head and shoulders bottom pattern and the previous explained Elliott sequence from 80.20 zone. Of note, MACD is on its way to give us a positive signal.
The trading range for today is among key support at 75.25 and key resistance now at 78.80.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 76.40 | 76.20 | 75.80 | 75.25 | 74.80 |
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| Resistance | 77.20 | 77.40 | 77.85 | 78.45 | 79.10 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair above 76.95 targeting 78.80 and stop loss below 75.80 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Morning Report
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Despite the general upside trend (we recommend checking our weekly report for more information), the pair returned to trade below the downside trend’s main resistance and also below the exponential moving averages 20 and 50, while Stochastic is still negative after it failed to turn positive yesterday. We expect the downside movement to extend today, while stability below 0.8020 supports our expectations, however, testing 0.7790-80 is also available now, before the pair attempts to incline again.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.7650 and the major resistance at 0.8170.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.6980 targeting 0.8815.
| Support | 0.7900 | 0.7875 | 0.7815 | 0.7750 | 0.7710 |
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| Resistance | 0.7970 | 0.8020 | 0.8080 | 0.8120 | 0.8170 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the chart and explanations above, we recommend selling the pair below 0.7970, and take profit in stages at (0.7875 and 0.7785) and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 0.8080 might be appropriate. | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Morning Report
The pair’s attempts to turn positive have failed, and is currently trading around 38.2% Fibonacci correction at 0.9780, while the exponential moving averages 20 and 50 are pressuring the pair bearishly,. Thus, potential downside actions could be seen as stability remains below 0.9865, offring a negative sign, as we mentioned before. We expect a downside movement to control the pair’s movement today as long as the pair is stable below this critical level, which represents the descending triangle’s resistance.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.9545 and the major resistance at 0.9970
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9710 | 0.9680 | 0.9635 | 0.9600 | 0.9545 |
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| Resistance | 0.9800 | 0.9825 | 0.9865 | 0.9910 | 0.9970 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair around 0.9780, and take profit in stages at (0.9710 and 0.9635) and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 0.9865 might be appropriate. | ||||