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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Thursday, 01 September 2011 09:19
Morning Report
The decline seen yesterday, led the pair to breach the ascending channel’s main support, which lifted the pair from (D) point of the Bat pattern reaching the first extended target at 127.2% of the CD leg of the harmonic structure. Furthermore, the pair trades today around 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the CD leg at 1.4365; however the pair didn’t stabilize below this level. Stochastic attempts to provide positive crossover, but ADX confirms that a breach of the ascending main support suggests a downside movement. Therefore, we remain neutral today, awaiting more confirmations regarding the bullish Bat pattern’s effect.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 1.4255 and the major resistance at 1.4565
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.4365 | 1.4320 | 1.4300 | 1.4205 | 1.4255 |
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| Resistance | 1.4410 | 1.4455 | 1.4490 | 1.4535 | 1.4565 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we remain neutral awaiting more confirmations | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Morning Report
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Bearishly influenced by yesterday's explained bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, the pair has slumped attacking SMA 50 as seen on the provided daily graph. Moreover, we have finally witnessed a negative closing below the pivotal support areas of 1.6250; thus, the path is classically clear towards 1.6105 zones, followed by the psychological levels of 1.6000. The bearish sign on Stochastic became clear; whilst MACD traditional kept its negativity, adding further confirmation to our constructive bearish overview. A break of 1.6190 will accelerate the awaited downside wave.
The trading range for today is among key support at 1.6000 and key resistance at 1.6500.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6190 | 1.6075 | 1.6025 | 1.6000 | 1.5935 |
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| Resistance | 1.6310 | 1.6365 | 1.6420 | 1.6470 | 1.6500 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair around 1.6250 targeting 1.6025 and stop loss above 1.6430 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Morning Report
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In line with our yesterday's suggested scenario, the pair succeeded in attacking the key resistance level of 77.20 as seen on the provided four hour graph. We can see how it also succeeded in achieving two closings above SMA 20; thus, we still believe that the bullishness may dominate the movements of the pair over intraday basis, supported by the mixture between classical probability of forming head and shoulders bottom pattern and the previous explained Elliott sequence from 80.20 zones. Of note, breaching through 76.95-77.20 areas will bring strong buying interests.
The trading range for today is among key support at 75.25 and key resistance now at 78.80.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 76.40 | 76.20 | 75.80 | 75.25 | 74.80 |
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| Resistance | 77.20 | 77.40 | 77.85 | 78.45 | 79.10 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair above 76.95 targeting 78.80 and stop loss below 75.80 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Morning Report
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Observing the daily chart, the decline seen yesterday is seen as a retest of the descending channel’s main resistance, which turned into support after it was breached. Moreover, the pair is currently stable above the moving averages 20 and 50, and also above the middle line of Bollinger band. All those signs argue us to expect that, the upside movement could return today, after the pair retested the level of 0.8020. Stochastic is negative, where stability above 0.8120 could unload the negativity seen on it.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.7875 and the major resistance at 0.8250.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.6980 targeting 0.8815.
| Support | 0.8020 | 0.7970 | 0.7925 | 0.7900 | 0.7875 |
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| Resistance | 0.8080 | 0.8120 | 0.8165 | 0.8215 | 0.8250 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the chart and explanations above, we recommend buying the pair around 0.8020, and take profit in stages at (0.8120 and 0.8215) and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 0.7900 might be appropriate. | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Morning Report
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The pair traded yesterday in sideway range around 38.2% Fibonacci level, forcing Stochastic to turn negative and then it provided negative crossover today. The downside correctional movements are still available, while reaching 50% or maybe 61.8% Fibonacci at 0.9710 and 0.9635 respectively is still possible. Consolidation below EMA 20 and 50 and below the main resistance at 0.9865 support our expectations.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.9635 and the major resistance at 0.9970
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9710 | 0.9680 | 0.9635 | 0.9600 | 0.9545 |
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| Resistance | 0.9780 | 0.9825 | 0.9865 | 0.9910 | 0.9970 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair around 0.9780, and take profit in stages at (0.9710 and 0.9635) and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 0.9865 might be appropriate | ||||