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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Monday, 29 August 2011 07:56
Weekly Report 29/08 – 02/ 09/ 2011
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The pair is currently inclining to stabilize above the top of (C) point of the bullish Butterfly harmonic pattern. This scenario suggests retesting the extended target 127.2% at 1.4560. A breach of this level could support the pair to retest more extended targets at 161.8% of the CD leg, which means a retest that could reach the level of 1.4700. In fact, Stochastic is within overbought areas, which could cause heavy fluctuation and maybe downside corrections, but on the other hand, consolidation above 1.4455, should support our positive expectations, while stability above 1.4365 should hold our intraday expectations valid.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 1.4205 and the major resistance at 1.4700
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.4490 | 1.4455 | 1.4410 | 1.4365 | 1.4300 |
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| Resistance | 1.4565 | 1.4620 | 1.4680 | 1.4700 | 1.4765 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend buying the pair around 1.4455, targeting 1.4700 and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 1.4365 might be appropriate. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Weekly Report 29/08 – 02/ 09/ 2011
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The areas shaded in yellow shows how the pair slumped aggressively last week, respecting our previous week's anticipations flawlessly. However, Friday's upside recovery from 1.6205 zones has created a bullish candlestick formation after being supported by SAM 50. This recovery has fixed the negativity of Stochastic, but couldn't change the negative sign which is still appearing on MACD traditional indicator as seen on the provided daily graph. Therefore, we may witness a mild upside rally towards 1.6550 once 1.6420 is breached; whilst a sustained break below Friday's low at 1.6205 will bring a downside pressure, targeting 1.6100, followed by July's low at 1.5780. The technical situation is very sensitive forcing us to stay aside until a clearer sign appears to pinpoint the upcoming big move.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.6000 and key resistance at 1.6745.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6310 | 1.6250 | 1.6190 | 1.6075 | 1.6025 |
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| Resistance | 1.6420 | 1.6500 | 1.6550 | 1.6630 | 1.6680 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, staying aside until an actionable setup presents itself over coming sessions. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Weekly Report 29/08 – 02/ 09/ 2011
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After topping at 80.20 on August, 04, the pair moved sharply to the downside, drawing an IM-impulsive wave- as seen on the provided four-hour chart. This impulsive structure was followed by the upside recovery expected in our last week's report. We classify the upside move from the significant low of 75.90 to 77.70 as the first corrective wave of the reactionary "A-B-C" structure; whilst setback from 77.70 to the 76.40 could be seen as "B" wave. A break of 77.25 is urgently needed to confirm the "C" wave that should complete the proposed Elliott sequence. Our technical targets reside at 161.8% projection of "A" wave at 78.80, followed by 79.20. Only a break of 75.90-75.80, accompanied by a four-hour closing can negate our bullish outlook. Ultimately, Stochastic is positive and MACD would turn bullish if we witnessed the aforementioned breakout.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 74.80 and key resistance now at 79.55.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 76.40 | 76.20 | 75.80 | 75.20 | 74.80 |
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| Resistance | 77.25 | 77.85 | 78.45 | 78.80 | 79.55 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair above 77.25 targeting 79.20 and stop loss below 75.80 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Weekly Report 29/08 – 02/ 09/ 2011
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The pair stabilized above 0.8020, awaiting consolidation above 0.8170, which represents 23.6% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg of the Deep Crab harmonic pattern. Technical signals seen on medium and long-term time frames suggests more upside actions, where ADX negative momentum weakened, while RSI confirmed the positive turnover. Therefore, we expect an upside trend to control the pair’s movement this week. Heavy fluctuation along with downside corrections are possible, but stability above 0.7950 should keep our expectations valid, while we negate our expectations on intraday basis in case stability below 0.7815 is seen.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.7665 and the major resistance at 0.8350.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.6980 targeting 0.8815.
| Support | 0.8020 | 0.7950 | 0.7915 | 0.7815 | 0.7765 |
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| Resistance | 0.8090 | 0.8170 | 0.8195 | 0.8240 | 0.8305 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the chart and explanations above, we recommend buying the pair around 0.7950, targeting 0.8350 and stop loss with daily closing below 0.7800 might be appropriate. | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Weekly Report 29/08 – 02/ 09/ 2011
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The pair declined again to reach the support at 38.2% Fibonacci correction as shown above. This movement suggests that the bearishness could extend further, while a breach of the correction at 0.9780-60 should confirm our negative expectations. Stochastic is within oversold areas, which could lead heavy fluctuations and maybe some upside corrections, but in general, stability below 0.9910 supports the possibility of completing the downside correction.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.9535 and the major resistance at 1.0010.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9760 | 0.9705 | 0.9635 | 0.9590 | 0.9535 |
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| Resistance | 0.9830 | 0.9865 | 0.9910 | 0.9970 | 1.0010 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair around 0.9830, targeting 0.9635 and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 0.9925 might be appropriate. | ||||
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