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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Friday, 26 August 2011 08:04
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Morning Report
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The pair fluctuated heavily, but then consolidated above 88.6% Fibonacci of the CD leg of the bullish Bat harmonic structure. Stability above this barrier suggests another attempt to consolidate above the top of (C) point at 1.4455, which could bring a bullish wave towards the extended target at 127.2% Fibonacci correction of the same leg. We still expect an upside movement, but stability with 4-hour closing above 1.4300 is necessary to prove the bullishness.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 1.4205 and the major resistance at 1.4560
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.4390 | 1.4365 | 1.4300 | 1.4255 | 1.4205 |
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| Resistance | 1.4455 | 1.4490 | 1.4535 | 1.4565 | 1.4620 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend buying the pair around 1.4390, targeting 1.4560 and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 1.4300 might be appropriate. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Morning Report
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In line with our yesterday's techncial comments, the pair has collapsed, reaching 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of CD leg for the bullish harmonic pattern which was the first technical objective, mentioned in the midday report, Thus, the journey of achieving the extended technical targets was limited successfully with stability below 76.4% level. Our suggested megaphone-broadening top- pattern is still in progress, but let us respect the solidity of 61.8% Fibonacci level and the oversold sign of RSI 14 which is always respected by Cable; therefore, we propose potential fluctuation that could take it to test the broken 76.4% at least before resuming the downside rally towards the lower line of the aforesaid classical pattern. Areas of 1.6075, followed by 1.6000 become under our technical microscope.
The trading range for today is among key support at 1.6025 and key resistance at 1.6550.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6250 | 1.6225 | 1.6190 | 1.6075 | 1.6025 |
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| Resistance | 1.6365 | 1.6420 | 1.6470 | 1.6500 | 1.6550 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair around 1.6365 targeting 1.6095 and stop loss above 1.6555 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Morning Report
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The pair has been capable of achieving a positive daily closing above SMA 20-colored in green- as seen on the provided graph. This closing is the first positive one above SMA 20 since the 4th of August which may be a good technical catalyst that will push the pair higher in an attempt to touch SMA 50-colored in red and valued at 78.65-. RSI 14 has touched the value of 50 and that was the reason behind the mild retrace started at 77.70 areas, but we still see that, bulls will dominate the situation over intraday basis, supported by our previous proposed Elliott count, discussed in "Eye On USD/JPY" report.
The trading range for today is among key support at 75.80 and key resistance now at 79.55.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 75.20 remain intact.
| Support | 76.70 | 76.40 | 76.20 | 75.80 | 75.20 |
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| Resistance | 77.40 | 77.85 | 78.45 | 79.55 | 80.05 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair around 77.00 targeting 79.50 and stop loss below 75.80 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Morning Report
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Yesterday, the pair reached the exponential moving average 50 (EMA 50) at 0.7995, however declined again after it failed to breach the mentioned level. Stochastic attempts to provide negative crossover, which could force downside pressures on the pair, but at the same time, the pair is still stable above the exponential moving average 20 at 0.7860, and also above the support at 0.7815, while RSI attempts to turn positive through stabilizing above 50 points. Today, we are facing technical conflict, which drive us to stay neutral.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.7700 and the major resistance at 0.8280.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.6980 targeting 0.8815.
| Support | 0.7900 | 0.7875 | 0.7815 | 0.7800 | 0.7750 |
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| Resistance | 0.7955 | 0.7995 | 0.8050 | 0.8080 | 0.8120 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we remain neutral awaiting more confirmations | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Morning Report
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By time, we can see the descending resistance approaches the support, which represents 38.2% Fibonacci at 0.9780. However, the pair’s movement is limited between these levels. Stochastic is within overbought areas, while the RSI is negative and stable below 50 points level. These technical factors drive us to expect that the bearish correctional movement of the bullish wave, which started from 0.9405, is still effective. Stability above 0.9910 should weaken our expectations, while consolidation above 0.9950 should negate our intraday expectations.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.9710 and the major resistance at 1.0125.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9825 | 0.9770 | 0.9735 | 0.9700 | 0.9680 |
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| Resistance | 0.9910 | 0.9970 | 1.0010 | 1.0080 | 1.0125 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair around 0.9880, and take profit in stages at (0.9770, 0.9710 and 0.9635) and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 0.9970 might be appropriate. | ||||
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