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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Thursday, 18 August 2011 07:49
Morning Report
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The pair inclined to reach 1.4517 and then slumped again to trade below point (C) of the bullish Bat harmonic pattern, while a bearish candlesticks’ structure is supported by the negativity seen on Stochastic and RSI. ADX is still negative. On the other hand, stability above 1.4300 should keep the harmonic pattern’s effect strong. Finally, we will stay neutral today, awaiting more confirmations.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 1.4205 and the major resistance at 1.4565
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.4365 | 1.4300 | 1.4255 | 1.4205 | 1.4150 |
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| Resistance | 1.4410 | 1.4455 | 1.4490 | 1.4535 | 1.4565 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we remain neutral awaiting more confirmations | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Morning Report
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The pair succeeded in surpassing 1.6455, where the technical obstacle of 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of CD leg for the bullish harmonic pattern exists. This breakout has taken the pair towards the full correctional levels of the aforesaid leg; accordingly, 127.2% Fibonacci projection should be put under our technical microscope to be the next target of the journey of achieving the extended technical targets of the harmonic pattern. But, we have two technical problems that prevent us from suggesting bullish trend resumption as follows:
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The last three four hour candlesticks closed comfortably below 100% of CD leg, indicating that the upside momentum is decreasing.
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There is a probability of forming huge negative divergence on RSI 14.
As a consequence, we should be patient until we catch an actionable setup to define the next move; noting that we will be long if it achieves a four hour closing above 100% of CD leg, seen on the four hour graph.
The trading range for today is among key support at 1.6225 and key resistance at 1.6745.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6470 | 1.6420 | 1.6365 | 1.6310 | 1.6250 |
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| Resistance | 1.6550 | 1.6630 | 1.6680 | 1.6715 | 1.6745 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, staying aside until an actionable setup presents itself to pinpoint the next move. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Morning Report
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Market is still trapped within a very narrow range since the opening of this week, indicating that a price explosion is under preparation for the time being. We believe that, this explosion may occur bullishly, but not before breaching 77.20-77.40 zones. It seems that there will be a chance for drawing a double bottom with a possibility of forming positive divergence too. As we discussed earlier that, it is too early to judge if the classical pattern will be completed or not as a break of 75.80-76.00 areas will negate bullish outlook.
The trading range for today is among key support at 75.25 and key resistance now at 79.55.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 76.40 remain intact.
| Support | 76.45 | 76.25 | 75.70 | 75.25 | 74.80 |
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| Resistance | 77.10 | 77.40 | 77.85 | 78.45 | 79.55 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair above 77.20 targeting 79.55 and stop loss below 75.80 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Morning Report
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The pair is trading between the exponential moving average 20 (EMA 20) at 0.7815 from below and the exponential moving average 50 at 0.8020 from above. The pair is also trading above the middle line of Bollinger bands indicator almost in the middle of the descending channel, which drive us to expect another positive attempt today, which could force the pair to retest the descending channel’s main resistance at 0.8115 and maybe to retest the upper line of Bollinger band at 0.8165. Therefore, we will hold onto our positive expectations, especially after Stochastic had failed yesterday to force the pair to decline below the intraday critical level of 0.7815.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.7665 and the major resistance at 0.8280.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.6980 targeting 0.8815.
| Support | 0.7875 | 0.7815 | 0.7750 | 0.7710 | 0.7665 |
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| Resistance | 0.7950 | 0.8020 | 0.8080 | 0.8115 | 0.8165 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the chart and explanations above, we recommend buying the pair around 0.7900, targeting 0.8120 and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 0.7815 might be appropriate. | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Morning Report
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The pair failed to stabilize below 0.9760-80, but in fact rebounded to the upside. However, the pair is still stable below 23.6% Fibonacci correction at 0.9865 as shown on the chart, which suggests that negativity might return today. But, stochastic is biased to the upside, while the pair is trading positively. Therefore, stability below the mentioned support is required for our expectations to be confirmed.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.9635 and the major resistance at 1.0010.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9770 | 0.9735 | 0.9700 | 0.9680 | 0.9635 |
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| Resistance | 0.9865 | 0.9910 | 0.9970 | 0.9990 | 1.0010 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair below 0.9850, targeting 0.9635 and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 0.9970 might be appropriate. | ||||
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