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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Tuesday, 16 August 2011 09:31
Morning Report
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The pair rebounded sharply to the upside from areas near the support of 1.4255, achieving our expectations and is currently stable around C point -top of the bullish Bat harmonic pattern- and also around the second wave of the bullish Three-Drive pattern at 1.4455. The current bearish candlesticks structure could increase the possibility of some bearish correction, but at the same time, the harmonic rules indicate that consolidation above 78.6% Fibonacci correctional level of the CD leg at 1.4365 should extend the pattern’s effect, or in other words, extending the upside movement towards the extended target starting from 127.2% of the CD leg at 1.4560
The trading range for today is among the major support at 1.4255 and the major resistance at 1.4620
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.4410 | 1.4365 | 1.4300 | 1.4255 | 1.4205 |
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| Resistance | 1.4455 | 1.4490 | 1.4535 | 1.4565 | 1.4620 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend buying the pair around 1.4365 and take profit in stages at (1.4410, 1.4455 and 1.4560) and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 1.4255 might be appropriate. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Morning Report
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We are still following our previous suggested Elliott count, where 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for the entire downside rally from 1.6475 to 1.6108 was one of our proposals for completing the forth wave which took the TZ shape. Thus, the fifth wave may be in progress, and once the pair achieves stability along with hourly closing below 61.8% of the aforesaid rally , it will be an indication that Cable was capped out around 76.4% level. Moreover, the pair started to hit SMA 20 –colored in red- adding further confirmation that it has lost its upside correctional steam. On the other side, a break of 1.6475 will damage this outlook completely and in that case, we will be forced to reconsider this Elliott sequence.
The trading range for today is among key support at 1.6070 and key resistance at 1.6630.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6335 | 1.6250 | 1.6225 | 1.6125 | 1.6070 |
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| Resistance | 1.6420 | 1.6470 | 1.6500 | 1.6550 | 1.6630 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair below 1.6335 targeting 1.6125 and stop loss above 1.6500 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Morning Report
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The pair succeeded in achieving one more positive closing above the pivotal level of 76.75 as seen on the provided daily graph. It seems that there will be a chance for drawing a double bottom and of course, it is too early to suggest this classical probability, but we will rely on the RSI 14 alongside the solidity of the support to propose upside wave. Our overview will not be confirmed unless the pair breaches through 77.40 zones. Meanwhile, areas of 76.25-76.00 should protect the classical bullish outlook.
The trading range for today is among key support at 75.25 and key resistance now at 79.55.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 76.40 remain intact.
| Support | 76.45 | 76.25 | 75.70 | 75.25 | 74.80 |
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| Resistance | 77.40 | 78.45 | 79.55 | 80.05 | 80.60 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair above 77.40 targeting 79.55 and stop loss below 76.00 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Morning Report
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The pair declined slightly, but is still sable above the exponential moving average 20 (EMA 20), and also above the middle line of Bollinger band indicator, while the current bearishness could reduce the overbought sharpness seen on Stochastic. But, consolidation above the downside trend’s main support and above the middle line of Bollinger band at 0.7750 could support the pair to extend the positive attempts and retest the descending channel’s main resistance at 0.8135. Stability above 0.7620 is required for our intraday expectations to remain valid.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.7500 and the major resistance at 0.8135.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.6980 targeting 0.8815.
| Support | 0.7750 | 0.7710 | 0.7665 | 0.7620 | 0.7565 |
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| Resistance | 0.7875 | 0.7920 | 0.7965 | 0.8020 | 0.8080 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the chart and explanations above, we recommend buying the pair around 0.7750, and take profit in stages at (0.7875, 0.7965 and 0.8020) stop loss with 4-hour closing below 0.7620 might be appropriate. | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Midday Report
The pair declined after stabilizing below 23.6% Fibonacci correctional level at 0.9865 as shown above. The current downside correction pushed the pair to trade below the SMA 20 and 50, while the pair is approaching 0.9780-60, where 4-hour closing below this level should complete a bearish technical pattern. We expect the suggested downside movement to extend, targeting mainly 0.9710 and may be 0.9635, while 4-hour closing below 0.9990-1.0010 is required.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.9635 and the major resistance at 1.0010.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9770 | 0.9735 | 0.9700 | 0.9680 | 0.9635 |
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| Resistance | 0.9850 | 0.9910 | 0.9970 | 1.0010 | 1.0080 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair below 0.9850 and targeting 0.9635 and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 0.9970 might be appropriate. | ||||