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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Thursday, 11 August 2011 08:26
Morning Report
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The 4-hour closing below 1.4205 negated our yesterday's expectations, and then the pair declined to reach the critical barrier at 1.4150; however, we haven’t seen any closing below this level, which pushed the pair to trade again above 1.4205. We expect a possible upside move again, affected by the combination of harmonic patterns " the bullish Bat and Three Drives".
The trading range for today is among the major support at 1.4035 and the major resistance at 1.4490
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.4205 | 1.4150 | 1.4070 | 1.4035 | 1.3970 |
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| Resistance | 1.4250 | 1.4300 | 1.4370 | 1.4410 | 1.4490 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend buying the pair around 1.4225 and take profit in stages at (1.4300 and 1.4535) and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 1.4120, but in case the pair reach the stop loss point, we recommend selling the pair at 1.4120 and take profit in stages at 1.4070 and 1.4035 and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 1.4180 might be appropriate. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Morning Report
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The secondary image of the daily time scale shows the long black candlestick pattern formed yesterday, where its closing was achieved comfortably below the combination of SMA 50 and SMA 100. At the same time, we can see how the previous anticipated breakout below 1.6250 zones has sent the pair aggressively downwards within C wave of the suggested Elliott sequence. Now, some kind of retrace to retest the previous broken support areas-turned into resistance- before resuming the projected downside rally, chiefly targeting the psychological level of 1.6000 and a break of which may accelerate the wave.
The trading range for today is among key support at 1.5780 and key resistance at 1.6470.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6125 | 1.6070 | 1.6000 | 1.5935 | 1.5880 |
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| Resistance | 1.6225 | 1.6250 | 1.6310 | 1.6365 | 1.6470 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair around 1.6225 targeting 1.5980 and stop loss above 1.6420 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Morning Report
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The candle of BOJ's intervention has been fully covered via achieving a confirmed daily closing below it as seen on the provided daily graph, but we can see stable consolidation above the key support level of 76.25. Momentum and trend are presently showing technical contradiction due to nearing the above mentioned pivotal support areas. We need to be cautious as the trend over various time frames is still unclear; thus, we will hold onto our neutrality. A break of 77.95 zones may fix the sign appearing on AROON, while RSI is preparing for an upside move.
The trading range for today is among key support at 74.25 and key resistance now at 79.55.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 76.40 remain intact.
| Support | 76.45 | 76.25 | 75.25 | 74.80 | 74.55 |
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| Resistance | 78.45 | 79.15 | 79.55 | 80.00 | 80.60 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, staying aside until a clearer sign appears to pinpoint the upcoming big move. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Morning Report
The bearish momentum started to slow down, but this hasn’t been reflected on ADX indicator, and we expect the medium-term downside wave to end soon in case the pair failed to breach and consolidate below 0.6980, where this level represents the potential reversal zone of the bullish harmonic pattern, however, this pattern isn’t ideal and could be confirmed if this level wasn’t breached. The pair is currently trading far away from the potential reversal zone of the harmonic pattern, which increases the intraday risk versus return ratio. Therefore, we will stay neutral for today.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.6980 and the major resistance at 0.7920.
We need more confirmations regarding the pair’s short-term movement, awaiting the weekly closing around 0.7665.
| Support | 0.7230 | 0.7190 | 0.7150 | 0.7080 | 0.6980 |
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| Resistance | 0.7310 | 0.7360 | 0.7430 | 0.7475 | 0.7500 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we remain neutral awaiting more confirmations | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Morning Report
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The pair inclined yesterday, negating our suggested head and shoulders pattern, but the pair is still stable below 1.0000, accompanied with Stochastic negative crossover, while the RSI is moving bearishly. We expect downside movement for today, while a breach of 0.9785-70 should support the trend.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.9635 and the major resistance at 1.0010.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9840 | 0.9770 | 0.9735 | 0.9700 | 0.9680 |
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| Resistance | 0.9910 | 0.9970 | 1.0010 | 1.0080 | 1.0125 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair around 0.9910 and take profit in stages at (0.9785, 0.9635) and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 1.0010 might be appropriate. | ||||
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