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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Tuesday, 09 August 2011 08:10
Morning Report
Despite the sharp decline seen yesterday, we haven’t seen any 4-hour closing below 23.6% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg of the bullish harmonic Bat pattern at 1.4150, where this correctional level forced the pair to rebound above 38.2% Fibonacci of the CD leg at 1.4205. Trading above the harmonic structure’s first target at 38.2% Fibonacci correctional level, suggests a retest of the second target, which represents 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.4300. Therefore, we expect the upside movement to return today. Stability above 1.4150 is necessary for our expectations to remain valid.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 1.4035 and the major resistance at 1.4415
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.4205 | 1.4150 | 1.4070 | 1.4035 | 1.3970 |
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| Resistance | 1.4250 | 1.4300 | 1.4370 | 1.4410 | 1.4455 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend buying the pair around 1.4230 and take profit in stages at (1.4300 and 1.4410) and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 1.4150 might be appropriate. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Morning Report
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From the resistance line of our captured range trading area to the support line, the pair moved since the opening of this week. Retracing from the Asian session's recorded of 1.6265 reveals why we stood aside yesterday. Indeed, the price behaviors around the resistance level of 1.6470 and around 1.6250 represent the ideal reflection for the nature of sideways range trading. We will only depend on yesterday's bearish candlestick formation-secondary image- to predicate that, the pair may hit the support level of 1.6250. We should witness a decisive breakout below this level today, otherwise we will remain neutral.
The trading range for today is among key support at 1.6000 and key resistance at 1.6630.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6310 | 1.6250 | 1.6125 | 1.6070 | 1.6000 |
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| Resistance | 1.6415 | 1.6470 | 1.6500 | 1.6550 | 1.6630 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair below 1.6250 targeting 1.6025 and stop loss above 1.6420 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Morning Report
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The pair is still correcting the sharp incline occurred on past Thursday as seen on the provided graph. Actually, the pair didn’t attack the important low of the aforesaid Thursday's candlestick formation until now; thus, we classify the price behaviors as correction that may assist the pair to re-attack 23.6% and may be 38.2% Fibonacci of the downside rally from 85.50 to 76.25. In the interim, the combination of SMA 20 and SMA 50 cover the pair; therefore, we will be neutral today until an actionable setup presents itself to pinpoint the next move.
The trading range for today is among key support at 75.25 and key resistance now at 79.55.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 76.40 remain intact.
| Support | 77.10 | 76.45 | 76.25 | 75.25 | 74.80 |
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| Resistance | 77.90 | 78.45 | 79.15 | 79.55 | 80.00 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, staying aside until a clearer sign appears to pinpoint the upcoming big move. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Morning Report
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The pair is still biased to the downside and stable below the descending channel’s main support, which suggests that the downside move could extend today. On the other hand, we can see the momentum indicators are within oversold areas, while the pair is stable above the upper line of Bollinger Band indicator. Therefore, we will hold onto our neutrality for today awaiting more confirmations regarding the pair’s movement.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.7310 and the major resistance at 0.7920.
We need more confirmations regarding the pair’s short-term movement, waiting to observe the pair’s behavior around 0.7665 until closing this week.
| Support | 0.7500 | 0.7475 | 0.7430 | 0.7360 | 0.7310 |
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| Resistance | 0.7590 | 0.7620 | 0.7665 | 0.7700 | 0.7750 |
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| Recommendation | Neutrality is our recommendation, while we recommend observing the pair’s movement for more confirmations. | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Morning Report
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The pair rebounded sharply after reaching 0.9780 yesterday, to approach all of our targets, suggested in our weekly report. Now, momentum indicators are within overbought areas, while the pair is close to the psychological barrier of 1.0000 in addition to approaching a technical barrier at 1.0010, which represents 161.8% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg of the bullish AB=CD harmonic pattern. These signals drive us to expect a downside correction for today, while stability with 4-hour closing below 1.0010 should keep our expectations valid. More explanations and reasons beyond the expected downside move will be delivered through our Midday Report
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.9735 and the major resistance at 1.0160.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9910 | 0.9880 | 0.9815 | 0.9780 | 0.9735 |
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| Resistance | 0.9970 | 1.0010 | 1.0080 | 1.0125 | 1.0160 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair around 0.9950 and take profit in stages at (0.9880, 0.9780) and stop loss with 4-hor closing above 0.1.0010 might be appropriate. | ||||
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