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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Monday, 08 August 2011 09:03
Weekly Report 08/08 – 12/ 08/ 2011
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As we expected on Friday, the pair inclined sharply reaching all the suggested targets for that day. With the start of a new week, we find the pair is trading above 61.8% Fibonacci of the CD leg for the bullish harmonic Bat pattern, which suggests the upside move to extend towards 78.6% Fibonacci and maybe C point top of this pattern. Consolidation above 1.4300 suggests a retest of 1.4370 and maybe 1.4450. Downside correction is expected to fill the gap, which appeared today, but stability above 1.4205 shall keep our positive expectations valid.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 1.4015 and the major resistance at 1.4620
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.4300 | 1.4255 | 1.4205 | 1.4150 | 1.4070 |
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| Resistance | 1.4370 | 1.4410 | 1.4450 | 1.4490 | 1.4515 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend buying the pair around 1.4255 and targeting 1.4450 and stop loss with 4-hour closing below 1.4150 might be appropriate. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Weekly Report 08/08 – 12/ 08/ 2011
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The technical situation becomes more sensitive after achieving Friday's US session rally, which was followed by touching 1.6470 zones once more. The first chart of the four hour time scale, we can see the recently established trading range areas between 1.6225-1.6250 zones and 1.6470 areas, where MACD and Vortex are giving off unclear signs. Despite trading closer to the resistance level of this range, but we will notice a hard technical obstacle around 1.6550 zones. Thus; we don't believe that any upside attempts will be marked by acceleration as the next difficult resistance will be near to 1.6470. The second graph of the daily basis reflects the above mentioned sensitive case more and more as the pair is trading below the broken uptrend line from 1.4225- low of 2010- to the significant peak of 1.6745, but it is above combination of SMA 50-SMA 100. In result, we are completely forced to stay aside until an actionable setup presents itself over coming sessions.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.5935 and key resistance at 1.6745.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6310 | 1.6250 | 1.6070 | 1.6000 | 1.5935 |
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| Resistance | 1.6470 | 1.6550 | 1.6630 | 1.6680 | 1.6745 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, staying aside until a clearer sign appears to pinpoint the upcoming big move. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Weekly Report 08/08 – 12/ 08/ 2011
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The aggressive recovery from 76.25 zones took the pair towards our second suggested technical target at 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of CD leg for the harmonic structure discussed in the previous report. Now, we will look at the daily chart from a pure classical point of view, where we can realize why the upside recovery stopped around 80.00 zones. In fact, SMA 50 played a big role in sending the pair lower, particularly after drawing the long wick of past Thursday's candlestick. Additionally, Fibonacci of 38.2% for the downside rally from 85.50 to 76.25 has met the solid classical resistance-previous broken support- of 79.55. Anyway, AROON indicator shows how strong was the reversal from 76.25 and it may continue over coming period. But, areas of 78.45 should be penetrated as well to bring upside resumption, while 76.25 should be the floor that protects the pair form more slides.
The trading range for this week is among key support at 75.25 and key resistance now at 81.05.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 76.40 remain intact.
| Support | 77.45 | 77.10 | 76.45 | 76.25 | 75.25 |
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| Resistance | 78.45 | 79.55 | 80.00 | 81.05 | 82.00 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair above 78.45 targeting 81.50 and stop loss below 76.80 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Weekly Report 08/08 – 12/ 08/ 2011
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The pair is still trading negatively below the downside trend’s critical support. But, momentum indicators are still within oversold areas, while the pair is stable near the lower line of Bollinger Band. Trading above 0.7785-50 is the only factor that is able to prove the bullishness, but the pair is trading below this level, while momentum indicators are within oversold areas. We stay neutral in our weekly report awaiting more confirmations regarding the pair’s movement.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.7250 and the major resistance at 0.8080.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.7665 targeting 0.8795.
| Support | 0.7550 | 0.7500 | 0.7475 | 0.7410 | 0.7330 |
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| Resistance | 0.7620 | 0.7680 | 0.7750 | 0.7785 | 0.7800 |
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| Recommendation | Neutrality is our recommendation, while we recommend observing the pair’s movement for more confirmations. | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Weekly Report 08/08 – 12/ 08/ 2011
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According to the previously suggested pattern, the pair inclined affected by the bullish AB=CD pattern to trade now above the C point top of the pattern, which suggest a retest of 127.2% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg of the harmonic pattern at 0.9880. Stability above this level could create a bullish wave that may force the pair to retest 161.8% of the CD leg at 1.0010. But, momentum indicators are turning into oversold areas, which could lead heavy fluctuations and maybe downside corrections before the extension of the upside wave. Our expectations remain valid as long as the pair is stable above 0.9635 in general, and above 0.9780 on intraday basis.
The trading range for this week is among the major support at 0.9550 and the major resistance at 1.0125.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9780 | 0.9735 | 0.9700 | 0.9635 | 0.9590 |
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| Resistance | 0.9845 | 0.9880 | 0.9910 | 0.9970 | 1.0010 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair around 0.9780 and take profit in stages at (0.9880, 0.9970 and 1.0010) and stop loss with 4-hor closing below 0.9700 might be appropriate. | ||||
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