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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Wednesday, 03 August 2011 07:55
Euro
Morning Report
The pair is trading around 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg of the bearish bat harmonic pattern –shown in Green on the left-, and still trading below the B point bottom of the suggested harmonic pattern, which could be a butterfly harmonic pattern –shown on the right-. Therefore, we expect the downside move to extend targeting 1.4125 and a break of which should support the pair to retest 1.4070 and 1.4035 respectively, where the last level should complete the suggested butterfly pattern. Stability with 4-hour closing below 1.4335 and 1.4275 is more preferable for our expectations to remain valid.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 1.4035 and the major resistance at 1.4425
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.4165 | 1.4125 | 1.4070 | 1.4035 | 1.3970 |
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| Resistance | 1.4215 | 1.4275 | 1.4335 | 1.4375 | 1.4425 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend selling the pair around 1.4215 and take profit in stages at 1.4125, 1.4070 and 1.4035 and stop with 4-hour closing above 1.4275 might be appropriate | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Morning Report
The pair is still battling the pivotal support of 1.6250, where 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of CD leg of the bullish harmonic AB=CD pattern exists. We need to witness a sustained breakout below the aforementioned level to make sure that 88.6% of CD let has capped the pair and we believe that, it will be able to achieve this awaited breakout, based in the classical negativity appearing on daily studies as seen on the subsidiary image. It is clear that SMA 50 is covering the movements as well. Consequently, we hold onto our bearish predictions over intraday basis.
The trading range for today is among key support at 1.6000 and key resistance at 1.6550.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6250 | 1.6225 | 1.6075 | 1.6000 | 1.5935 |
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| Resistance | 1.6310 | 1.6365 | 1.6420 | 1.6500 | 1.6535 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair below 1.6250 targeting 1.6025 and stop loss above 1.6420 might be appropriate. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Morning Report
Normal anticipated consolidation is seen on the provided four hour graph. It seems that, the market is still building a solid technical base in order to draw the awaited A-B-C recovery for the IM "Impulsive wave. The positive divergence appearing on RSI 14 could be another bullish sign that reactionary waves (A-B-C) are under preparation. A break of 78.05 may accelerate the bullishness. On the downside, breaching through 76.40 will trigger a panic selling pressures and will damage the bullish outlook .
The trading range for today is among key support at 75.25 and key resistance now at 79.55.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 76.40 remain intact.
| Support | 77.10 | 76.75 | 76.40 | 76.00 | 75.25 |
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| Resistance | 77.65 | 77.80 | 78.35 | 78.90 | 79.55 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying the pair at 77.10 targeting 79.20 and stop loss below 75.60 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Morning Report
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The pair achieved our previous expectations and is trading now around 0.7665. The pair is trading below the lower line of Bollinger bands range, while Stochastic is within oversold areas and is still negative. RSI reached the 20 points level. All these technical signals together drive us to expect a bullish correction. But, this correction requires consolidation above the descending channel’s main support at 0.7750, while the upside correction cannot be confirmed unless the pair stabilizes above the main support. We will stay neutral today, observing the pair’s behavior around 0.7665.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.7430 and the major resistance at 0.7920.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 0.7665 targeting 0.8795.
| Support | 0.7610 | 0.7580 | 0.7550 | 0.7475 | 0.7430 |
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| Resistance | 0.7750 | 0.7785 | 0.7830 | 0.7875 | 0.7920 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend observing the pair for more confirmations due to the high risk-to-return ratio. | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Morning Report
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The pair continues to trade positively, affected by the bullish AB=CD harmonic pattern, and currently the pair is stable above 50% Fibonacci correction of the CD leg of the pattern and may reach 61.8% Fibonacci correction, which is the pattern’s second target at 0.9635. But, momentum indicators show some kind of negativity, which could lead to a bearish correction, but, consolidation above 0.9545, which represents the patterns first target, could support the upside trend to extend in general.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.9490 and the major resistance at 0.9700.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9600 | 0.9545 | 0.9520 | 0.9490 | 0.9445 |
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| Resistance | 0.9635 | 0.9680 | 0.9700 | 0.9770 | 0.9800 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair around 0.9545 and take profit in stages at (0.9635 and 0.9700) and stop loss with 4-hor closing below 0.9490 might be appropriate. | ||||
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