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Technical Major Currencies
Written by article default Tuesday, 26 July 2011 10:35
Morning Report
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The pair rebounded sharply to the upside during the past two hours, but is trading within tight range below 1.4490, mentioned in our weekly report. This incline has switched our expectations from Gartley pattern to a Bat harmonic pattern, after achieving our weekly first target at 1.4330. Now, we should prove the bearish bat harmonic pattern, while trading below 1.4400-20 will support the bearishness. Stability above 1.4490 with a four hour closing may weaken the expected intraday downside trend.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 1.4250 and the major resistance at 1.4645.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135.
| Support | 1.4420 | 1.4375 | 1.4310 | 1.4250 | 1.4195 |
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| Resistance | 1.4490 | 1.4535 | 1.4565 | 1.4615 | 1.4645 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend selling the pair below 1.4490, and take profit in stages at (1.4375, 1.4310, and 1.4250) and stop loss with 4-hour closing above 1.4565 might be appropriate. | ||||
Great British Pound (GBP)
Morning Report
The pair has found a very good support around SMA 50, which carried it as well and at the same time, RSI 14 started to enter the overbought areas again. Henceforth, we will remain neutral at least during the morning sessionuntil we see how the pair will behave around 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of CD leg for the bullish harmonic AB=CD pattern as a break of this Fibonacci level will trigger panic buying pressure towards 1.6550 –the full correctional level of CD leg- according to the harmonic rules that organize the scenario of the technical target. If the bullishness started at SMA continues, we should note that there is a technical obstacle resides around 1.6440-1.6450 zones.
The trading range for today is among key support at 1.6125 and key resistance at 1.6550.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
| Support | 1.6310 | 1.6250 | 1.6225 | 1.6190 | 1.6145 |
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| Resistance | 1.6265 | 1.6420 | 1.6445 | 1.6500 | 1.6550 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, staying aside until a clearer sign appears to pinpoint the upcoming big move. | ||||
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Morning Report
The pair continues moving downwards, where it achieved one more negative daily closing below 76.4% retracement of the rally from 76.40 to 85.50 and 23.6% Fibonacci of the bearish wave from 85.90 to the aforesaid trough. Eyeing today will be on the process of retesting 78.50 zones from below since RSI still needs for relaxation, before resuming the bearishness towards 77.10 supported by stability below Ribbons lines -EMA 10 to 80- and the negativity on Vortex indicator -trend indicator-. Our bearish outlook and our detected technical objective are based on the previous explained descending triangle.
The trading range for today is among key support at 76.75 and key resistance now at 79.55.
The general trend over short term basis is to the upside, targeting 87.45 as far as areas of 76.40 remain intact.
| Support | 77.85 | 77.45 | 7730 | 77.10 | 76.75 |
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| Resistance | 78.35 | 78.90 | 79.30 | 79.55 | 79.80 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair around 78.50 targeting 77.10 and stop loss above 79.40 might be appropriate. | ||||
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Morning Report
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The pair is trading around the sensitive level of 0.8015; this level as shown above represents potential reversal zones-PRZ- of a harmonic structure. The correction of AB leg is 88.6%, and this opposes the entire familiar harmonic patterns, and could suggest that we are facing a recently discovered pattern, but we should observe the pattern accurately because the suggested CD leg is less than 261.8%, awaiting more confirmations to prove this pattern. The downside trend is slowing down around 0.8015; where a daily closing above this level supports the possibility of an upside correction and also the possibility of proving the harmonic pattern. Finally, we don’t rule out some bearishness today, but the upside trend is still available in general unless a breakout occurs below 0.7920 or a consecutive daily closing below 0.8015.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.7830 and the major resistance at 0.8250.
The short-term trend is to the downside with steady daily closing below 1.0330 targeting 0.8000.
| Support | 0.8000 | 0.8015 | 0.7970 | 0.7920 | 0.7875 |
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| Resistance | 0.8080 | 08110 | 0.8150 | 0.8195 | 0.8250 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair with around 0.8015, targeting 0.8250, and stop loss with daily closing below 0.7920 might be appropriate today | ||||
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Morning Report
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The pair is trading bearishly, but still above the bottom of the suggested D point of the bullish AB=CD pattern. Trading above 0.9475 with four hour closing should support the possibility of an upside wave, while a breach of 0.9400 and consolidation below it, should weaken the intraday downside movement.
The trading range for today is among the major support at 0.9305 and the major resistance at 0.9680.
The short-term trend is to the downside as far as 1.0665 remains intact targeting 0.9000.
| Support | 0.9400 | 0.9375 | 0.9350 | 0.9305 | 0.9285 |
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| Resistance | 0.9475 | 0.9545 | 0.9600 | 0.9625 | 0.9680 |
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| Recommendation | Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair with 4-hour closing above 0.9475 targeting 0.9680 and stop loss below 0.9400 might be appropriate | ||||