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Gold And Silver Update – Is The Corrective Rally Over?
Written by article default Thursday, 10 February 2011 18:45
Gold (XAU/USD)
- Gold has been in a rally since the end of January, pushing pass 61.8% retracement of the decline that started January 13, and stuck at 50% of the decline since the start of the year.
- The next cluster seen in the 4H chart is the 1375-1380 area.
- This is the level the market has in sight if the current decline is supported by the rising channel.
- On the other hand, if the market is respecting the 200SMA in the 4H chart and breaks below the channel, it might be heading back down to test the 1309 low.
- A break below this eyes the 1295 area (50% retracement and 200SMA in the daily).
- The 1265 level is the lowest I have for gold at the moment because this is an important pivot in 2010. It was an important resistance level, and now would be a significant support level to accompany the fibonacci retracement level of 61.8%.
- This scenario can either come now if the corrective rally is over, or perhaps after another rally attempt.
Silver (XAG/USD)
- Compared to Gold, Silver’s “corrective” rally has been more aggressive, and the prospect of further decline is lesser.
- The 4H chart shows the RSI break above 70 though market action has not clearly broken above 78.6% retracement, so this could still be a deep corrective rally.
- The lack of convincing trending signals suggest we are still in a ranging mode.
- If the market stays within the rising channel seen in the 4H chart, there is a positive reversal signal pointing towards the 30.90 area with a swing projection.
- A break below the channel however only suggests a decline first to 28.80 area. A break below that looks at the 28.00 pivot. Only a break below that suggests a test of 26.50, and only a break below 26.50 opens up 25.00 as the next target.
- In this ranging mode, with bullish momentum, it is more likely that silver will be testing its 2010 high of 31.20.