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EUR/USD’s Bearish Outlook Has Upside Risk To 1.3820-1.3830 Above 1.3757

EUR/USD
EUR/USD 4H Chart 1/27/2011

- EUR/USD is most likely in a topping pattern, with extended bearish divergence, but continues to be contained above the rising support.
- However, we had a positive reversal signal on the 25th that targets 1.3820-1.3830 area. This is also a 100% projection of wave (a) for wave (c).
- If the market breaks above 1.3830 however, it can extend towards 1.3975.
- The more probable downside scenario could start with today’s level near 1.3745 area. The market has shown a tweezers-top in the 4H chart, with a high at 1.3757. A break above that has the 1.3820-1.3830 area in sight.

EUR/USD 1H Chart 1/27/2011

- The decline needs to close  below the rising support and 1.3640 first, as well as provide a lower top, or we continue to have upside risk.
- The RSI in the 1H chart has to break below 40 as well, and should tag 30 to show it has bearish momentum.

Will the EUR/USD really top off as everyone believes? Do you have a bullish outlook, or perhaps a  neutral one? We would love to hear from you.