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Germany: Trade Data Expected to Bounce Back in Sept as Exports Fuel Germany’s Recovery
Written by article default Monday, 08 November 2010 06:20
Germany’s exports have rebounded nicely following the financial panic in 2008 and the recession. Germany exports have risen 26.8% between August 2009 and August 2010. Imports have climbed an even higher 29.2%. Despite that, exports still make up a larger share of trade. In August 2010, Germany exports €75.1billion, while importing €66.1billion. That amounted to a non seasonally adjusted €9.0billion trade surplus, which was smaller than in June and July. Expectations are for a bounce back in the surplus to a €12.0 billion and €13.2B seasonally adjusted.Here’s a look at both sets of data for the last 5 months, and their forecast for September’s reading.
Trade Balance (s.a.): forecast 13.2B, pr. 11.7 (Aug), 12.7B (Jul), 12.3B (Jun), 10.6B (May)
Trade Balance (n.s.a.): forecast 12.0B, pr. 9.0B (Aug), 13.5B (Jul), 14.1B (Jun), 9.8B (May)
Germany’s Strong Export Growth Fueled by Trade with Nations Outside EU
Germany has been leading the charge for the Euro-zone comeback, and it has been fueled by strong export growth, so this indicator is important in the grand scheme of things. A breakdown of German exports reviels that the Euro-zone is not the only beneficiary of the bump in Germany’s economy.
Germany sent €43.9 billion of goods and commodities to EU nations, of which €28.6 billion went to countries in the Euro-zone. Exports outside the EU amounted to €31.3 billion, a figure that is larger. Also, exports grew by 40.8% compared to August 2009, while imports from surged by 37.9%. We were of course working from a much lower point because of the deflated levels of trade in early to mid 2009. Exports to Euro-zone countries grew by 16.5%, and imports by 22.7%.
What this tells us is that Germany has had no problem bouncing back from the recession and is increasing its trade, both with its neighbors but also with emerging economies. This report should confirm that. It’s aso an interesting fact that Germany is growing itst trade at a quicker pace with nations outside the Euro-zone than within. Therefore despite Germany’s strong data, will Germany really be the driver that re-ignites growth in the troubled Euro-zone periphery? That’s a more medium term question and will have a large impact on the Euro.