Economic analysts said there is a possibility the Australian dollar will still drop and touch as low as ½ USD before rising again.
There have been many predictions that the AUD will decline to US70 cents early next year. However, they are moving forecasts lower after the currency went down twice last Wednesday and traded at US70.19 cents before the week ended.
The chief economist of Deutsche Bank, who projected the Australian dollar, will slip to US66 cents by the end of 2015 warned the 50 cent scenario is possible by December.
He stated that there is nothing certain as of this stage. This may only be known until growth in China picks up and the Aussie economy begins to adjust as a result of the mining industry boom. The Reserve Bank of Australia may consider raising rates once this takes place. The economist added that the Aussie dollar will rise only by 2017 or 2018.
Reasons for lower revisions are quite similar such as decreasing prices of commodities; falling mining investments; lower government spending; and, economy trying to cope with the transition. The lead industries here are the mining and services sectors.
The Australian dollar is known to be volatile and often shaped by Chinese economic movements. However, there has been no prediction as of yet that it will sink lower than the notable low of US47.9 cents in April of 2001.
A currency strategist from the Commonwealth Bank revealed they have not reduced forecasts and await the outcome of the US Fed’s meeting this coming September 16.
The common currency decreased over one percent giving up gains against the USD following the Yuan’s depreciation last month and the European Central Bank’s move to reduce economic growth objectives and kept interest rates untouched.
The ECB trimmed down estimates regarding inflation and economic expansion as the central bank President Mario Draghi said the situation can get worse.
These changes increased doubts regarding the efficacy of ECB’s $1 trillion program for euro asset-purchase meant to stimulate growth and boost consumer prices after several years of reduced inflation.
According to Draghi, inflation risks are at a downside due to lower prices of crude oil and the bond-buying agenda will continue for another year.
The euro slipped 1.4 percent versus the US dollar to reach a two-week trough of $1.1108. It was down 0.90 percent ($1.1122) earlier this week after it touched a high of $1.1332 as investors opted for the euro and Japanese yen.
The euro fell against the yen and was behind 1.1 percent or 133.48 yen.
The USD maintained an edge over other currencies but plunged 0.20 percent against the Japanese currency to 120.09 yen.
On the other hand, the Swedish crown went up to a high of six weeks or 9.3755 crowns against the euro after the central bank of Sweden decided to keep interest rates unchanged.
The Chinese Government will be implementing more stringent policies on FOREX derivatives and trading of stock indexes to calm nervous markets. There are many concerns right now over the wellbeing of China’s economy.
Beijing is pushing through with measures that have increased concerns on overseas investors regarding the commitment of China to carry out reforms and deal with financial volatility. The government said it will focus on immediate stability rather than longer-term market liberalization
People’s Bank of China (PBOC) officials have fixed robust trading midpoints daily for the Yuan. Likewise, the central bank has intervened in derivative markets.
The PBOC will set aside reserves for purchases of all currency derivatives from October, according to an international media organization. This can make it more expensive to wager on further devaluation of the local currency.
Said move spreads out the scope of a similar document wherein the PBOC said it will require banks to maintain reserves for currency trading to stop speculations and volatility.
Some traders say extensive interference in the spot market and forthcoming requirements in trading hamper China’s efforts in currency reforms.
Stakeholders are concerned that efforts of Beijing to hold up the Chinese currency will drain the country’s huge FOREX reserves.
For the FOREX market, reserve ratios will be established at 20 percent of the small value of forwards and swap contracts and set at 10 percent of minimal value of principal when it comes to options.
If this reduces pressure of depreciation, this can lessen the need for the central bank to sell foreign currency to purchase Yuan.
The Yuan weakened 2.6 percent last month which is the worst month so far. This heightened concerns that the deteriorating Yuan can bring about capital flight.
Deutsche Bank AG, which was charged last May for FOREX market rigging, is suspected of another case of currency fixing. This time the affected currencies are from Argentina, Brazil and Russia. This report came from classified sources but a bank spokesperson did not give any statement.
Probes are being conducted to determine which banks filed to settle previous FOREX-related cases.
Banks in Moscow and some other countries are under watch for influencing benchmark rates of currencies in emerging markets. The Russian ruble was also sought out by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) during past settlements including one that involved Barclay’s Bank which did refused to comment on said issue.
The CFTC examined a particular rate for the ruble according to traders’ submissions during resolutions of foreign exchange rigging investigations in 2014. The banks concerned were UBS, JP Morgan, HSBC, RBS, and Citigroup.
The Commission focused on a benchmark that the Emerging Markets Trade Association (EMTA) and CME Group
Incorporated created during the 1889s. Since then, it has been utilized as reference for derivatives. The CME Group operates the biggest futures exchange in the whole world.
CFTC also said Barclays tried to manipulate this benchmark during the #400 million resolution made this year. The bank’s unlawful activity was done by traders in several places which included Moscow.
Prosecutors still expect these banks to cooperate with the investigation for immediate resolution of pending cases.
The US dollar dropped versus the common currency and low-yield euro as investors refused to bet against currencies often used to fund uncertain carry trades.
With carry trades, traders sell low-yielding currencies to buy riskier but higher-yielding notes for higher profits. Investors are likely to avoid unstable assets once instability happens in financial markets worldwide and stocks collapse.
The FTS Euro First 300 shares index registered its worst performance for the month since August of 2011 incurring a nine percent loss as Fed policymakers appear inclined to increase interest rates soon.
Japanese and Chinese stock markets were down along with Wall Street indexes (around 0.80 percent during late trading in New York.
The US dollar index declined 0.16 percent which was close to 1.5 percent lower in August although it was above a seven-month trough of 92.621 one week ago as prospects of a China slowdown sent stocks plummeting.
USD gave up 0.13 percent to 121.23 Japanese yen and went down around two percent for this month but still above the seven-month decrease of 116.15 one week ago. The euro went up 0.3 percent to $1.1225 which is below the high of $1.1715 last week although it remains 2.4 percent up in August month.
The US dollar touched 0.44 percent versus the Swiss franc (0.9672 CHF) and under 0.31 percent against the UK pound sterling at $1.534.
USD and CAD pair touched 1.3298 during but the pair later consolidated at 1.3296 and climbed 0.73 percent.
The pair found support at 1.3163 which was a high in August 26.