US indices were very volatile yesterday. The trading day closed with gains after several companies announced better than expected quarterly returns. The S&P 500 rose by 0.68%, the NASDAQ by 0.38%, and the Dow Jones added 0.55% to its value. Technically, according to 1-hour chart, the Dow Jones has crossed above the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at 16,160, and maintaining this will retain the bullish momentum for the index. Gold fell by almost 2% after the US Consumer Price index came out better than expected. Crude Oil has been trading between the support level of $103 and the resistance level of $104.50 for the past week. Today, the Crude Oil Inventories report is expected at four million barrels. The euro finished the day unchanged against the US Dollar following a mixed ZEW Economic Sentiment report. The EUR/USD is maintaining the support level of 1.3788 and is now trading around 1.3815. Today, the CPI and the Core CPI are expected and better than expected results could push the pair higher. Breaching above 1.3850 may cause another jump for the pair to around 1.3900. However, worse than expected data could send the pair down to around to 1.3750. The Pound experienced a lot of volatility during the day only to finish unchanged following the release of mixed economic data. The CPI report came out unchanged at 1.6%, the PPI Input m/m worse than expected at -0.6% vs. -0.1% , and the HPI better than expected at 9.1% vs. 7.2%. The GBP/USD has strong support at 1.6700 and maintaining this may push the pair towards 1.6800. Crossing below this support will cause a drop to 1.6600. Today, the Claimant Count Change report is expected at -30.2K vs. -34.6K previously and the Unemployment Rate unchanged at 7.2%. The Canadian Dollar rose after the Manufacturing Sales came out better than expected, only to fall later in the day with the rise in the US Dollar. The USD/CAD is trading in an ascending channel. Resistance is at 1.1020 and breaching this could lead the pair towards 1.1050. Crossing below the support of 1.0945 will halt the ascending channel with a drop to around 1.0860. Today, the Foreign Securities Purchases is expected at 4.57B vs. 1.09B previously, and the Overnight Rate unchanged at 1.00%. Expect volatility today after the release of the BOC Monetary Policy Report and the BOC Rate Statement.
US indices closed the trading week negative after worse than expected earnings reports for the first quarter of 2014. The NASDAQ fell by 1.17%, the S&P 500 by 0.95%, and the Dow Jones lost 0.89% from its value.
The US Dollar rose against its major counterparts after the sharp drop in the stock market last week. Today, the Core Retail Sales m/m is expected at 0.5% vs. 0.3% previously and the Retail Sales m/m at 0.8% vs. 0.3%.
Commodities continued to rise, with gold rising for the fifth day in a row as investors sought a safe haven against falling markets.
The Euro fell against the other major currencies with the drop in the stock markets last week and the rise in the US Dollar. The EUR/USD again failed to breach the 1.3900 resistance level. The pair is now around the support level of 1.3830. Crossing below this could lead it to another drop to 1.3750. Today, the Industrial Production is expected at 0.3% vs. -0.2% previously.
The Pound fell against the other majors with the rise in the US Dollar. The GBP/USD has created a double top pattern at 1.6800 and the resistance level seems very hard to breach. The pair is more likely to continue dropping towards 1.6650 and even lower to 1.6500. Today, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor is expected.
Last week’s stock market drop sent investors to the safe haven of the Japanese Yen. This is why we saw a drop in the Japanese currency last week to almost its monthly support level of 101.00. Any gains on Wall Street this week could signal a great opportunity to buy the Yen.
In currency news, the US Dollar rose following five bearish days in-a-row against major currency counterparts. Stock corrections and indices price drops are leading investors back to the greenback. The Dollar’s biggest gain was against the Canadian Dollar, with the US currency also gaining on the pound and doing slightly better against the euro.
The Canadian Dollar was last trading at the level of 1.09770, which is an increase of 0.39%.
The Australian Dollar also weakened against the US Dollar at the end of last week, but this represented just a small dent in a trend that has seen the Aussie currency rally by 5% in three months. A strong domestic market, increase in production demands from trade partner China and interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia have all contributed.
The Australian Dollar was last trading at the level of 1.0643, which is an increase of 0.20%.
In commodities news, WTI Crude Oil continued to rise on the back of strong consumer spending in the US. Five bullish weeks have taken Oil back to the position it held at the end of February, and as high as it’s been this year. WTI Crude Oil has recovered 65% of its price since falling $115 in 2008, but still has some way to go to reach that year’s peak of $145.
Oil was last trading at the level of 103.67, which is an increase of 0.28%.
Gold has traded in a relatively narrow $200 channel for most of the last year but a generally weak dollar and recent stocks corrections have kept Gold in the top half of the range. Some analysts are suggesting that Gold will continue the recent uptrend to once again approach its 2011 highs above $1,800.
Gold was last trading at the level of 1,318.08, which is a decrease of 0.04%.
US indices traded higher yesterday following the discussion over rates by the Federal Open Market Committee. This eased investor concerns over the timing of potential interest rate increases. The Dow Jones rose by 1.11%, the S&P 500 by 1.09%, and the NASDAQ added 1.72% to its value.
Alcoa shares rose by 3.75%, closing at $13.00 after kicking analysts’ estimates over the first-quarter report.
The US Dollar dipped versus its major counterparts due to the FOMC Meeting Minutes and expectations of a low Import Price Index, which is due for release just prior to US indices trading. Also, the 10-year Bond Auction came out at 2.72|2.8 vs. 2.73|2.9 previously. Today, the Unemployment Claims is expected at 314K vs. 326K previously, and the G20 Meeting is scheduled to take place.
Gold rose by 0.20%, closing at $1312 an ounce. Crude Oil also rose by 1%, closing at $103.35 a barrel as anxiety over the situation in Ukraine overshadowed the Crude Oil Inventories report.
The euro rose versus the US Dollar after the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The EUR/USD has breached the upper band of the Bollinger Bands indicator and has retraced below this band. As long as it maintains this condition, we expect the EUR/USD to form a correction towards 1.3800. No major economic data is expected today.
The Pound rose against the US Dollar after the UK Trade Balance came out as expected at -9.3B — an encouraging sign for investors. The GBP/USD is trading below a solid resistance level of 1.6800. Breaching this resistance level may lead the pair towards 1.6850. Today, the Asset Purchase Facility is expected unchanged at 375B, the Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50%, and the MPC is scheduled to announce the Rate Statement during the day.
Wall Street finished Tuesday’s trading in the green to halt three negative trading days after the JOLTS Job Openings report came out better than expected at 4.17M vs. 3.99M forecast. The S&P 500 rose by 0.38%, the NASDAQ gained by 0.87%, and the Dow Jones by 0.06%.
The US Dollar fell versus most of its major counterparts after the US stock market rose. Investors await the FOMC Meeting Minutes report today, speculating that this will reflect the Federal Open Market Committee’s belief that the US market is on the rise — a clear signal to sell the Dollar and buy stocks. Facebook’s share price increased by 2.18% as investors speculate that the last correction was too strong and that the share is rising.
Gold rose by 0.92%, closing at $1,310 an ounce. Crude Oil gain by 1.50%, closing at $102.30 a barrel. Today the Crude Oil Inventories report will be released with a forecast of 1.0M vs. -2.4M previously.
The euro rose versus the US Dollar after the French Trade Balance report came out better than expected at -3.4B vs. -4.9B forecast. The EUR/USD has breached the resistance level of 1.3780, and is rising again. Maintaining this bullish momentum should lead the pair towards 1.3850 areas soon. Today, the German Trade Balance report will be released with a forecast of 18.0B vs. 17.2B previously.
The Pound gained versus the US Dollar after the UK Manufacturing Production report came out better than expected at 1.0% vs. 0.3% forecast. The GBP/USD has touched the resistance level of 1.6750. Breaching above the resistance level should lead the pair towards the next resistance level at 1.6800. Today, the Trade Balance report is forecast at -9.3B vs. -9.8B% previously.
Wall Street finished Monday’s trading in the red following last Friday’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report. The S&P 500 declined by 1.07%, the NASDAQ dropped by 1.16%, and the Dow Jones fell by 0.94%. The US Dollar fell versus most of its major counterparts after the World Bank cut its growth forecasts for China, causing a drop in the Dollar. Added to this, investor confidence has been dampened by poor economic data, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s continued reduction in its tapering program. Tesla’s share price dropped by 2.22% as investors sold stocks after sharp gains. Tesla is trading in a bearish momentum, and the share may continue to drop towards the support level at 194. Gold declined by 0.38%, closing at $1,299 an ounce. Crude Oil also fell by 0.28%, to close at $100.77 a barrel. he euro rose versus the US Dollar after the German Industrial Production report came out better than expected at 0.4% vs. 0.3% forecast. The EUR/USD has touched the support level at 1.3700 and is on the rise again. Maintaining this bullish momentum should lead the pair to around 1.3800. Today, the French Trade Balance report will be released with a forecast of -4.9B vs. 5.7B previously. The Pound gained versus the US Dollar after the UK stock market fell. The GBP/USD is trading close to the support level of 1.6600. Crossing below this should lead the pair towards the next support level at 1.6460. Today, the Manufacturing Production report is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.4% previously.
Wall Street finished Friday’s trading in the red after the Non-Farm Payrolls report came out worse than expected at 192K vs. 199K forecast. The S&P 500 declined by 1.25%, the NASDAQ dropped by 2.60%, and the Dow Jones fell by 0.96%. The US Dollar strengthened versus most of its major counterparts as the US stock market fell sharply, causing a rise in the US Dollar. Investors understand that the US interest rate be increased in 2015 to reflect the Federal Reserve’s forecast of a growing US economy, giving the greenback a positive momentum. The Canadian Dollar rose versus the US Dollar after the Unemployment Rate report in Canada came out better than expected at 6.9% vs. 7.0% forecast. The USD/CAD has broken below the ascending support level, so the trend has changed from bullish to bearish. The pair may continue to fall towards the next support level at around 1.0900. Gold rose by 1.42%, closing at $1,303 an ounce. Crude Oil rose by 0.77%, closing at $101.11 a barrel. The euro weakened versus the US Dollar as investors speculate that the European Central Bank is preparing a new tapering program. The EUR/USD has touched the ascending support level at 1.3650 and has not crossed below it. Holding above the support level may cause the pair to rise towards 1.3800 areas once again. The Pound fell versus the US Dollar after the Halifax HPI report came out worse than expected at -1.1% vs. 0.7% forecast. The GBP/USD is trading in an ascending channel. The pair is close to the support level, so failing to cross below 1.6550 may cause the pair to rise towards 1.6700 areas again. However, breaking below the support level should lead the pair to around 1.6400.
In currency news, an unexpected drop in UK house prices in March impacted the pound last week as it declined against the US Dollar for the fourth time in five weeks. Sterling has enjoyed a period of strength against the Dollar, with prices the highest they’ve been since the end of 2009. The Bank of England is expected to consider raising interest rates when it meets on April 10th.
The pound was last trading at the level of 1.65739, which is a decrease of 0.13%.
The Canadian Dollar hit a six-week high against the US Dollar last week thanks to employment results exceeding forecasts last month. Jobs increased and unemployment fell in Canada as employment in the US failed to meet expectations. Positive results for the Canadian currency allowed the loonie to do well against 10 out of 16 currencies.
The Canadian Dollar was last trading at the level of 1.0978, which is a decline of 0.51%.
In commodities news, Gold rose in response to the poor US employment figures of 192,000 versus 200,000 forecast. Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve, pointed to the necessity of extending financial stimulus efforts, leading investors to again return to the safe haven of Gold.
Gold was last trading at the level of 1,302.62, which is an increase of 1.26%.
WTI Crude Oil futures rose on Thursday and Friday as a result of US employment data, limiting an overall weekly decline. Brent Crude Oil also rose as rebels in Libya blocked exports. WTI Crude is currently trading above the mid-point of the asset’s year high and low prices from 2013, as Brent Crude trades slightly below its mid-point last year.
Oil was last trading at the level of 101.14, which is an increase of 0.85%.