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Currency Pair Forecast

forex tradingDuring the session last Tuesday, the euro and green bucks slipped higher but the tandem faced quite a bit of resistance over the handle of 1.25. In this situation, it ended by forming an enormous shooting star that results to tandem of EUR/USD to continue selling off in the surrounding vicinity. When the bottom of the hammer broke below, the market might go to the level of 1.2250 provided with adequate time.

During Tuesday session, the GBP/USD pair initially fell and then broke much higher. The 1.58 level, however, presented resistance and consequently buying is not ready. Meanwhile, buyers are hesitant to purchase this pair until it broke above the handle of 1.60 handle while expecting market to change trend again. Finally, in the sidelines, a decent buying opportunity is appearing soon. The candle is not right to start selling.

At the start of the Tuesday session, the EUR/GBP pair was broken higher at the start but was finally fell adequately to create a shooting star. Shooting stars suggested the pulling back of market to go much lower. However, Lots of clamor from below keep the market from any type of clean move. Ultimately, traders have to prepare volatility if they go to trade this market.

Posted in FOREX News

More on the Russian Currency

Wednesday saw the sharp strengthening of the RUB in volatile trade following the statement of Finance Ministry who said that its left-over stocks are being sold as foreign currency.

Under heavy selling pressure this week, the ruble forced the CB force to escalate its key interest rate to an unanticipated 650 basis points during an emergency move that was weak to defend the currency.

As of this hour, the ruble increase to around 3% versus the dollar at 65.52 but it was 4.2% stronger against the euro at 81.50.

After its slight recovery last Wednesday, RUB was still low almost 50% compared against the dollar this year after it stirred the 1998 crisis that witnessed the collapse of the currency within a matter of days.

President Vladimir Putin, whose popularity could be partly accounted for providing stability and prosperity, now has to wrestle another major challenge. His risk is determined by the declining ruble that destroyed the trustworthiness of Russia among investors.

Market participants believed that exporters could be selling dollars observing the approaching tax period. A dealer of currency at a big Russian bank warned that that CB intervention could not be excluded.

The dealer believed that ruble’s strengthening appears artificial, although he does give a 100% guarantee that it is the fault of the CB. There could have been an error of an exporter, whom they have convinced to sell forex.

This year, CB Russia conducted more than $80 billion in forex market to shield the ruble that was pushed lower by faltering oil prices, sanctioning of Western over Ukraine and a market panic that was on the rise.

Last Wednesday, the bank conducted an intervention in Forex market worth of $1.961 billion.

Posted in FOREX News

Euro and Great Britain Pound

FOREXUS dollar is the top winner in the session today with the EUR/GBP remaining basically flat alternating between gains and losses. EU members have to approve plans for new investments so they made much debate whether the collapse of the economy is caused by inadequate demand, stiff credit conditions, lack of reforms in the economy or insufficient confidence in business; however, EU governments concur that some actions must be done. They have the Juncker plan that will be actively running in mid-2015 and will last for three years that will focus on “feasible European investments of significance” that caters to digital networks, energy and transport, energy and digital networks, plus development and research.

Countries having equity stakes in the planned European Fund for Strategic Investment are promised favorable treatment by Juncker; after the authorities of EU calculates budget deficits that must be lower than 3% of the national output.

The Office for National Statistics said on Friday that the recent 15-month lows, sterling extended losses to fall against the dollar as this factor will probably keep lower interest rates in UK as growing evidence that Britain’s economic growth is moderating. Output of construction declined 2.2% last October following its escalation by the same amount in previous September.

Posted in FOREX News

It’s bumpy ride ahead

In just about every asset class, exuberance ruled the day. The concluding episode was threatening aversion closing the S&P 500 on the lows, down16 points to 1979. The market at midday ripped up to 2017 in rallying relied as oil shortly leaped $3.

The sad story concerns the ruble as it continued plunging not assisted by the massive interest rate hike in Russian. USD/RUB upped as much as 23% setting in a panic. The situation leaked over to trades at risk and pulled down USD/JPY to 115.57 just over the retracement of 38.2%.

The outflows from Russia were advantageous to EUR/USD. The pair peaked climbing to 1.2569 and above about one cent on the day.  Russia started stabilizing but it fell back down to 1.2480; although some bidders already stepped in there two times to create a dual bottom and a bounce to 1.2515.

Having long been the choice port of Russian money, it has the same effect in the UK. The number of UK CPI were subdued today and that ignited the beginning of a cable escalation to 1.5612 but it rebounded in a huge way and pulled to 1.5784 with the top arriving at the beginning of US trading. The session was mostly spent in consolidating the 1.5725 to 1.5760 range.

Canada’s dollar survived the oil drop and leaped well probably due to the deal in Talisman. However, the tandem de-escalated down to 1.1607 then recovered to 1.1640.

The Aussie was not going far as well. Following a 0.8275 jump in Europe it declined to 0.8210 in its trading with US and stayed within a short distance of the lows in fresh cycle.

The marker overall was dangerous and is trying to message the Fed to be careful.

Posted in FOREX News

Gold News

gold newsAs the price of gold broke the short-term support as expected; it was pushed below $1,200 towards a support area of $1,190-80.  The trend remains neutral as long as gold price stays $1,220 and over $1,180 trend. The two levels of the two prices are very important as the next move will happen after it is discontinued.

Following the release of US data and before the meeting of the Fed Reserve, the yellow gold lost its luster. At the session of yesterday, the precious metal was down to a 1-week low at $1,190.50.

The US dollar was propped by the strengthening the data of its industrial production that bounced 1.3% following a 0.1% increase last October. But other data like confidence in building declined by 1 point this month. Yellow gold, in yesterday’s session, fell lower 50 &20Dsma and it closed beneath those levels. The selling recommended is at $1,232.40 and same is still repeated.

Gold earns the closest fierce support zone at $1,188.00 and $1,185.00. Strong selling will appear lower $1,185.00. Presently, precious metal is traded lower at $1,200.00.  Recommend fresh selling is below $1,188.00 while safe selling is possibly will below $1,185.00.

The intraday resistance is at $1,200.00, over this at $1,218.00. An existing resistance is at $1,200 and $1,213.00. Use every rise to sell until gold is traded below $1,216.00. In case the metal is sold lower $1,185.00, it is still possible to fall towards $1,180, $1,175, and $1,169.00 levels.

Posted in FOREX News

Stocks in Asia Climb

 

Stocks in Asia soared just before the US Federal Reserve policy meeting as profits in utility and energy shares offset the drop in Japanese equities.

The MXAP (Asia Pacific Index) increased 0.1 percent to 134.49 in Tokyo stock markets after going down two percent the last two days. TOPIX Index of Japan decreased 0.5 percent after the Japanese currency moved past the US currency by 1.2 percent.

The Ruble plunged to an exceptional low and defied the interest-rate increase while crude oil continued to fall. The Fed vowed to maintain interest rates close to zero for an indefinite period, according to economic analysts.

The KOSPI index of South Korea increased 0.3 percent while the S&P/ASX 200 Index of Australia gained 0.4 percent. The New Zealand (NZX 50 Index) hardly moved during trading.

Futures on HANG SENG Index of Hong Kong lost 0.2 percent while contracts waned 0.6 percent.

Japanese exports also increased but the figure was less than what economists projected last November while imports declined without prior notice. The Japanese yen traded at 116.75 against the US dollar after increasing yesterday as investors looked for a haven due to the collapse of the ruble.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.2 percent. Principal equity measures lost 0.9 percent as the decline of technology shares surpassed gains in oil production. The economic crisis in Russia is not preventing the US central bank from abandoning its promise to keep rates low longer even as Fed policy makers admitted that international risks escalated.

 

Posted in FOREX News

Bank of Japan Stimulus

bank of japan stimulusJapan’s central bank is expected to augment record stimulus even more, according to a number of economists. Many of them predicted that the BOJ will continue easing beyond the term of incumbent Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

The bank’s decision to heighten asset purchases together with the move of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to defer a sales tax increase have made tapering harder, the economists said.

The Bank of Japan bolstered expectations for more stimuli by the easing.

The central bank will probably prefer not to change its asset purchase program.

Japanese exports increased below projections this November and underlined challenges to government efforts in bringing the nation’s economy out of a mid-year downturn.

It increased 4.9 percent from the previous year which is below the forecast of seven percent gains.

The yen dropped 0.2 percent at 116.63 per US dollar in Tokyo markets after reaching 115.57 which is the strongest in one month. Increased stimulus gives the bank flexibility to purchase from markets for every fresh bond issued by the Ministry of Finance.  The truth is the BOJ stimulus has brought down the currency.

Posted in FOREX News

AUD and USD

The Australian dollar was up versus the greenback and yet it was close to a four-year trough after minutes of the RBA declared that borrowing costs will stay unmoved for a while.

The pair hit 0.8245 during late trading in Asian stock markets and later consolidated at 0.8233 which was an additional 0.26 percent.

The pair will possibly find support at 0.8198 with resistance seen at 0.8303.

Minutes of the central bank’s policy meeting this month disclosed that board members took notice of market expectations which signified that there is a chance for an easing of policy next year.

The report also mentioned that board members believe that the most practical course was a period of permanence in interest rates.

Meanwhile, data pointed out that the China’s HSBC Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing contracted at 49.5 in December from a previous reading of 50.0 in November.

China is the major export partner of Australia.

FOREX markets were also edgy sooner than the Fed policy statement as continuing speculations rose because of the likelihood of rate hikes in the US 2015. The Aussie dollar was also higher against the single currency. EUR/AUD slipped 0.12% to 1.5128.

Posted in FOREX News

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